Poll: Harris lagging behind in California primary
Three-way race — Warren, Biden, Sanders in front
The presidential contest in California is looking more like a three-way race with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders at the top — and far ahead of home-state Sen. Kamala Harris — a new poll released Wednesday has found.
The front-runners are neck-andneck with Warren at 23%, Biden at 22% and Sanders at 21% among likely Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters in California, according to the poll conducted last month by the Public Policy Institute of California. Those totals are well within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting that the Golden State is a tossup with five months to go.
According to the poll, Harris was at 8%, followed by South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 6%, entrepreneur Andrew Yang at 3% and Sen. Cory Booker and former housing secretary Julián Castro each at 2%. Several other candidates, including San Francisco billionaire Tom Steyer, were at 1%.
But the race is still unsettled; just more than half of the respondents who’ve chosen a candidate say they would consider backing someone else.
The survey was conducted before Sanders underwent an unscheduled heart procedure this week, so the impact of that news on California voters is unknown.
Californians will go to the polls on March 3, making the Golden State and its massive trove of more than 400 pledged delegates the top prize of Super Tuesday. That early position in the primary calendar has led to increased attention from the campaigns and a flurry of candidate visits.
The poll is the latest bad news for Harris, who has seen falling num
bers across the board over the last few months. In the last PPIC poll in July — conducted soon after her star turn in the first primary debate — Harris was in the lead with 19%.
“A few months ago, it was a four-way race,” said Mark Baldassare, the PPIC president and poll director. “We’re seeing that Harris doesn’t have much of a home-state advantage, compared with national polls.”
The California senator is moving to shake up her top campaign staff, Politico reported this week, and has refocused on Iowa in the hope that a strong showing in the first caucus state will prompt more voters to give her a chance.
But Californians will begin receiving mail-in ballots a month early, the same day Iowans go to caucus, so the candidates also will feel pressure to focus on voters here.
Warren has a broader lead in the Bay Area with 30% support, followed by Biden at 20%, Sanders at 19% and Harris at 9%. She’s also ahead with liberals, while Biden is top among moderate and conservative voters.
Sanders continues to appeal to a younger demographic, with 38% support among young voters and 39% among Latino voters.
The Vermont senator was scheduled to travel to several college campuses in Southern California and the Central Valley this week to highlight his support from young Latino voters. But that swing was cancelled Wednesday after Sanders experienced chest pains during an event in Las Vegas on Tuesday night and underwent an operation to put two stents to open a blocked artery, his campaign said.
The poll results come as the campaigns have started to announce their third-quarter fundraising totals, which will be highly scrutinized progress reports for the White House hopefuls. Sanders led among the candidates who’ve released their totals so far, raking in $25.3 million over the last three months. Buttigieg took in $19.1 million, Harris took in $11.6 million, Booker got $6 million and — most surprisingly — Yang got $10 million.
Warren and Biden have yet to release their totals. The Democrats were eclipsed by President Trump, who raised $125 million between his campaign and the Republican National Committee. All of the candidates’ fundraising reports must be filed with the Federal Election Commission by Oct. 15.
In addition to the presidential horse race, the PPIC poll found mixed support for other measures that likely will be on Californians’ ballot next year. A $15 billion school construction bond that was passed by the legislature gets the nod from 66% of California adults, but only 54% of likely voters support it. Another bond to fund water infrastructure is favored by 68% of adults and 57% of likely voters.
And a highly-watched proposal to shake up Proposition 13 and raise taxes on commercial properties also is looking close, with the support of 57% of adults and 47% of likely voters.
Just more than twothirds of Californians say they favor stricter gun laws in the wake of the Gilroy Garlic Festival shooting and several other mass shootings, a slight increase over a poll conducted last year. Nearly 4 in 10 respondents say they are very concerned about mass shootings taking place in their communities, up from 28% in a January 2016 poll.
More Californians named homelessness the state’s top issue, while housing costs and availability was the top concern in the Bay Area. Half of Californians say they also worry someone they know could be deported with 29% saying they worry a lot.
The poll, which interviewed 1,705 Californians between Sept. 16 and 25, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2%. The question about the Democratic primary covered 692 likely voters and had a margin of 4.9%.