Playing Utah, especially on road, takes toll on opponents
We’ve heard it for years, from coaches and coordinators, from analysts and former players: Utah takes something out of you, something more than the typical opponent.
The Utes favor physicality over finesse. They’re bigger and tougher than most teams. Every lineman seems to have arms like Thor’s Hammer. The defensive backs don’t hesitate to punish. The running backs seek contact.
And the recovery requires more time.
We’ve heard it since the early years of Utah’s time in the conference and don’t doubt that it’s true.
But what’s the material impact? The Hotline watched Utah maul Arizona State and pondered the toll it might exact on the Sun Devils this weekend at UCLA.
So we ordered the crack Hotline research staff to check results for teams the week after playing Utah.
It was highly unscientific. We didn’t examine point spreads. We didn’t consider how that particular team performed over the course of its season.
We didn’t even tally the results against Utah.
All we tracked was what happened the week after Utah.
(To that end, we excluded teams that had an open date between the Utes and the next game.)
Since the start of 2016 — a decent sample size — Pac-12 teams have a 10-14 record The Week After Utah (TWAU).
That’s not an off-the-charts number, except that Washington is responsible for three of the wins. The Huskies followed their duels with Utah with victories in ’16, ’17 and ’18.
So remove from the equation the team that compiled a 22-5 conference record and won two titles in that span, and everyone else was 7-14 TWAU.
That feels significant.
But there’s more.
We drilled down another layer and considered location: How did teams perform in road games TWAU?
(That’s Arizona State’s assignment today, after all.)
The results were exactly what we expected:
Utah’s conference opponents are 3-10 when playing on the road TWAU.
Washington’s 2016 playoff team owns one of the wins.
The others came courtesy of Washington State, which beat Oregon State last year, and Oregon State, which beat Cal last week.
That’s as far as our exercise goes — not far enough to draw definitive conclusions but far enough to spot anecdotal evidence that the Utes do, indeed, take something extra out of their opponents.
To the picks ...
LAST WEEK >> 3-3
SEASON >> 26-25
FIVE-STAR SPECIAL >> 4-4
All picks against the spread. Lines taken from vegasinsider.com (for entertainment purposes only, or not)
OPEN WEEKS >> Washington and
Oregon State
CAL (+21.5) AT UTAH >> Arizona State ventured to Rice-Eccles last week with a freshman quarterback and wobbly offensive line. Cal’s line is no better, and its quarterback — Devon Modster or freshman Spencer Brasch — is worse. The questions are on Utah’s side: How much urgency will the Utes bring to the affair? And how healthy is Tyler Huntley? That point spread doesn’t allow much margin for error. Pick: Cal.
ARIZONA (-1) AT STANFORD >> It says so much that Stanford is a home underdog against the Wildcats, and yet it says so much that Arizona is only a 1-point favorite over the Cardinal. Our guess is that one of Stanford’s injured quarterbacks is able to play, and that Arizona shows the wear from back-toback road games and the impact of an ineffective defense. Is the football world ready for Grant Gunnell against Jack West? Don’t answer. Pick: Stanford
ARIZONA STATE (-3.5) AT UCLA >> To ASU’s physical challenge this week, add: The Bruins had two extra days to prepare (and heal). The inclination anytime UCLA shows a heartbeat in the Chip Kelly era is to declare a recovery at hand. We need to see consistency before we assume consistency. The Sun Devils don’t beat themselves and are comfortable in tight games. This should be tight. Pick: Arizona State.
WASHINGTON STATE (+14) AT OREGON >> Facts are facts: The Cougars have won four in a row in the series by an average margin of 15.5 points. But two words explain why that streak ends tonight: Andy Avalos. The Ducks’ defensive coordinator has the scheme to slow the Air Raid and the personnel to execute. If Oregon allows Penei Sewell and Co. to lead the way — as it did in the second half in Seattle — the Ducks should be comfortably ahead in the fourth quarter. If they get pass happy, WSU will be mighty appreciative. Pick: Oregon.
STRAIGHT-UP WINNERS >> USC, Utah, Stanford, Arizona State and Oregon.
FIVE-STAR SPECIAL >> Oregon. This year, it’s different.