U.S. must build the first practical quantum computers
Google’s recent announcement of achieving quantum supremacy — that is, using a quantum computer to solve a problem that is impossible on even the most powerful classical supercomputer — marks a watershed with implications that will eventually flow across nearly every aspect of our lives. Although Google used a prototype, special-purpose quantum computer, the achievement highlights a national imperative: The United States must launch an all-out initiative to build the first usable, generalpurpose quantum computers.
Others have claimed quantum supremacy before, but this credible report, which will now be a subject of intense scrutiny and debate in the scientific literature, will accelerate the gold rush in quantum computing as industry, academia, U.S. national laboratories and global competitors double down on their efforts to build the first practically useful quantum computers. That might be more than a decade away, but whoever gets there first — China, Europe and others are pressing forward at top speed — will be well positioned to dominate global security and the global economy.
The United States cannot allow others to beat us in this crucial technological race.
Quantum computing, with its promise of harnessing the strange properties of the subatomic world to accelerate computing, is one potential alternative to the current computing technology that has sustained progress for decades. For decades, much of the economy in the United States and around the world has been driven by the invisible hand of Moore’s law. It simply states that the power of computer microprocessors will double every two years while they get smaller and costs are cut in half.
The fact is, the productivity thus gained in conventional computing has underpinned global economic growth for more than five decades. This sustained economic boom sprang in part from federal investment in national security and computing technologies starting in the 1950s. The resulting innovations benefited public and private computer users everywhere. In recent years, the increasing time between successive generations of smaller transistors — the underlying enabler of Moore’s law — has signaled its approaching end, and with it goes the economic free ride on the back of faster, cheaper information processing.
The end of Moore’s law calls out the need to maintain America’s global leadership in scientific discovery and innovation through a strategy to stay ahead of the technological curve and continue generating widespread benefits for the common good.
Today, Los Alamos and other Department of Energy national laboratories, working closely with industry, continuously push the furthest frontiers of computing and related technologies in support of scientific discovery. Many of those breakthroughs trickle down to everyday life.
That technological landscape may splinter as Moore’s law ends, threatening to undermine the broad-based economic growth and scientific advancement that has enabled U.S. global leadership for decades. Disruptions will reverberate from the economy to science to national security.
We still have the leverage to stop this negative trend, but we need to focus on a broad effort in technological development that draws on public and private resources. One encouraging example is the recently passed National Quantum Initiative Act. The bipartisan law authorizes $1.2 billion for research into quantum science to stimulate breakthroughs in computer processing power.
Quantum computing is one of a few emerging approaches to show promise of unleashing a future economic boom based on as-yet-unimagined advanced technologies. We can already glimpse what that future holds: Greatly expanded applications of artificial intelligence and robotics, for instance, will lead to a fundamental restructuring of our economy, the workplace and national defense. Innovative ways of handling massive data could very well lead to curing diseases, enhancing national security, helping predict natural disasters, and protecting critical infrastructure from natural and man-made threats.
To seize and direct that future, the United States should continue federal investment into scientific research to develop new quantum-based technologies. That investment will enable creative partnerships with private industry to pursue the exploratory long-term research that yields the greatest returns. Sixty-five years ago, pivotal work in computer science at national laboratories led to personal computers, the internet, cloud services and pocket-sized mobile devices. Sixty-five years from now? Let’s get started.