Seahawks sure seem ripe for the plucking
As if their desperate pursuit of the retired Marshawn Lynch after an embarrassing loss to the Cardinals didn’t already give it away, these aren’t the same Seahawks the 49ers played just last month.
Crippling injuries may be at the forefront of Seattle’s troubles, but there are other reasons this version of the Seahawks may not seem as formidable when the 49ers face them at CenturyLink Field Sunday night with the NFC West title on the line.
From quarterback Russell Wilson no longer playing like an MVP candidate to the team’s disappearing pass rush, things are definitely askew in Seattle.
Now, about those injuries. The Seahawks played most of Sunday’s game without three-fifths of their starting offensive linemen, and they won’t have star running back Chris Carson (hip fracture), safety Quandre Diggs (ankle) or left tackle Duane Brown (knee) on the field this coming Sunday.
Standout cornerback Shaquill Griffin (hamstring) missed the last two games but may return Sunday.
When C.J. Prosise broke his
arm Sunday it left Seattle with fourth-stringer Travis Homer as its only healthy running back.
Drastic times made for the easy decision to reach back into the past Sunday night — that’s when the Seahawks dialed the 510 area code for help. Enter “Beast Mode.”
Sure, the 33-year-old Lynch, who was enjoying retirement in Oakland, may be past his prime, but tackling him likely won’t be a fun process for the 49ers on Sunday.
Pro Football Focus’ numbers show no one in the NFL since 2006 has broken more tackles than Lynch, who had 674 of them in his 11year career that seemingly ended in London 14 months ago when the Raiders lost to the Seahawks. Adrian Peterson’s 586 broken tackles are second-best to Lynch and the powerful Frank Gore, the NFL’s third-leading rusher of all-time, was more than 200 broken tackles behind Lynch before the season.
Anecdotally, there are probably more than 200 defenders who could tell you horror stories about trying to tackle Lynch. Like former Saints and Rams linebacker James Laurinaitis, who says Lynch was easily the most difficult player he had to tackle during his eight-year career. And not just because of Lynch’s brute strength.
“With Marshawn, it’s his lateral quickness that people don’t give him credit for. I would say fans (don’t know about it). Players know about it,” Laurinaitis said in an NFL Network interview. “He sets you up. You get in the hole with him, you start to drop your hips, you’re thinking ‘I’ve got to wait for a move,’ then he decides to punch you in the throat. You’re like, ‘OK, now I’m falling backwards.’”
It’s not as though Lynch needs a whole lot of help from his linemen, either. In his final season with the Raiders last year, Lynch was first in the NFL in forced missed tackles per attempt (0.26) and sixth in yards after contact (3.46). Some poor Raiders line play led to Lynch gaining 72.2 percent of his yards after contact, which was the fifthbest in the league.
“There’s nobody (more) that ever exemplified the mentality and toughness that we like to play with, so if we get a chance to get The Beast back on the field, we’ll see how that works out,” Seahawks coach Pete Carroll told 710 ESPN Seattle on Monday.
Here’s a closer look at some things to keep an eye on while the NFC West championship is decided in Seattle:
Game essentials
49ers (12-3) vs. Seahawks (11-4) at CenturyLink Field, Sunday at 5:20 p.m. (PT) on NBC Bay Area (Ch. 3). ODDS: 49ers -3
Three reasons for optimism
1, THIS TIME, KITTLE WILL PLAY >> Give the Seahawks credit for coming into Levi’s Stadium and handing the 49ers their first loss of the season in Week 10, but let’s not forget San Francisco was at a distinct disadvantage without George Kittle, the game’s top tight end. Kittle, who sat out the 49ers’ 27-24 overtime loss with a knee injury, is third among tight ends with 88 catches, despite missing two games. He leads all tight ends with 20 catches of 20 yards or more, six catches of 40 yards or more and with 68 percent of his receptions accounting for a first down. 2, BOBBY WAGNER’S SLUMP >> The stats show Seattle’s Pro Bowl linebacker Bobby Wagner is still a force — he leads the NFL with 152 tackles — but the analytics tell a different story about his season. In the previous two seasons, Wagner graded out above 85.0 in run defense, pass defense and in pass-rushing, according to PFF.com. However, Wagner has been exploited this season more than usual as his overall PFF grade of 68.5 is only 23rd out of the league’s 88 qualifying linebackers.
He’s been particularly susceptible to the pass, where his 49.8 grade is just 68th among linebackers.
3, A DEFENSE TO EXPLOIT? >> Kyle Shanahan had to be heartened to watch the Cardinals rack up 253 yards rushing against the Seahawks on Sunday as the 49ers coach would love to go what San Francisco couldn’t do the last time it faced Seattle — run the ball. The Seahawks held the 49ers to just 87 yards rushing in November. Overall, though, Seattle’s defense has had its issues. Its unit is 26th in yards allowed (380.5 per game) and 21st in points permitted (24.8). Could it be the 49ers’ turn to take advantage of Seattle’s defense?
Three reasons for pessimism
1, WILSON REMAINS DANGEROUS >> Wilson, once the odds-on favorite to win the MVP this season before Lamar Jackson emerged, has seemed to hit a wall the past five games. He had a plus 102.6 quarterback rating in eight of his first nine games this season, but has eclipsed the 100.0 rating just once in the past six games. He had 22 touchdown passes and one interception before facing the 49ers. Since then, he’s thrown seven TD passes and been picked off four times. Nonetheless, he remains elusive enough in the pocket to harm defenses with his arm or legs. A big reason why Wilson’s play has dropped off from his elite play earlier this season has been inconsistent production lately from big receiving weapons such as Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Maybe the 49ers’ biggest concern should be containing tight end Jacob Hollister, who has emerged as Wilson’s favorite target. Hollister had a breakout game against the 49ers with a career-best eight catches for 62 yards and a TD.
2, HISTORY ON SEATTLE’S SIDE >> The last time the 49ers won a game in Seattle was eight years ago Tuesday when they beat Seattle 19-17 on the strength of four David Akers field goals. Since then, it’s been seven years of trouble in the Northwest. And, while the Seahawks lost 27-13 at home to Arizona on Sunday, they’re known for showing tremendous resolve following a defeat. Dating back to 2012, Seattle is now 31-7 after a regular-season loss, including 3-0 this season.
3, SEATTLE’S UNSUNG ROOKIE LINEMAN >> Rasheem Green, a thirdround pick from USC, has quietly made a big difference on the Seahawks’ defensive line. Although he has a modest four sacks, he is Seattle’s sack leader. Green has benefited from the presence of Jadaveon Clowney, who most teams focus their blocking efforts on. It may not be long before Green requires some added attention. He has a team-leading three forced fumbles and, lately, he’s become a bigger part of Seattle’s special teams efforts. He blocked a field goal on Sunday, which was his second blocked field goal attempt in the last three games.
Probable differencemaker
JADAVEON CLOWNEY >> Clowney, of course, is also dealing with an injury. Carroll, though, is confident he’ll be able to play despite a core-muscle injury. Which would be good news for Seattle, since Clowney is the NFL’s fifth-ranked pass rusher with a win rate of 25.1 percent. Clowney and the Seahawks already proved they could make life rough on Jimmy Garoppolo, but do they have that type of performance in them again?
Clowney, the former No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 draft, had five quarterback hits, a sack, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and a touchdown in Seattle’s victory in Santa Clara last month. In all, the Seahawk were able to get 10 quarterback hits on Garoppolo. However, judging by what Seattle’s rush has done lately, the effort against San Francisco looks like an aberration. The Seahawks have just three sacks over the past four games.