A lot of flux in delegate breakdown
Early returns find Sanders and Biden above threshold to qualify
It will take weeks for California to finish counting its millions of votes from Super Tuesday’s presidential primary — and to know the exact breakdown of how many delegates each White House contender will earn.
But while a lot could change in the coming days as more votes trickle in, the early returns suggest that Sen. Bernie Sanders failed to win the huge delegate blowout he had hoped for in the Golden State.
Sanders, who was declared the California victor by The Associated Press shortly after polls closed Tuesday night, is on track to win a clear victory in the delegate count.
But former Vice President Joe Biden seems likely to pick up a substantial number of California delegates as well — and that’s a key reason Biden has surged to the front in the delegate race nationwide, despite losing Tuesday’s biggest prize.
Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg dropped out of the race and endorsed Biden on Wednesday morning after concluding he didn’t have a path to the Democratic nomination. The preliminary vote counts show Bloomberg would be earning several dozen California delegates, but those results aren’t final and his share may drop as more ballots are counted.
“While I will not be the nominee, I will not walk away from the most important political fight of my life,” Bloomberg said in a statement, vowing to use his vast fortune to support the general election campaign against President Donald Trump. In an emotional speech Wednesday, he told supporters, “I’m sorry we didn’t win, but today’s the best day of my life, and tomorrow’s going to be even better.”
Based on the early returns and barring major shifts as more votes are
counted, Sen. Elizabeth Warren could gain only a handful of delegates in the state, potentially jeopardizing her ability to stay in the presidential race.
“Last night, we fell well short of our viability goals and projections, and we are disappointed in the results,” Warren’s campaign manager, Roger Lau, wrote in a blog post. “Elizabeth is talking with our team to assess the path forward.”
California’s 415 pledged delegates, the most available of any state, aren’t winner-take-all. The delegates are divvied up under a complicated proportional process. About a third — 144 — are split up based on the statewide results, while the other 271 get divided based on the results in each congressional district.
So what happens to delegates for candidates who drop out? It depends on various state and party rules: In some cases, they may be resorted to other candidates who are still in the race, and in other cases, they’ll be freed to vote for whomever they want at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee this summer. Former candidates like Bloomberg and Pete Buttigieg could encourage their delegates to vote for Biden — but they won’t be able to force them to do so.
The most important number in the race is 15%. A candidate needs to reach that threshold statewide in order to receive any statewide delegates, and has to reach it in any individual congressional district in order to get any delegates from that district.
As of Wednesday morning, Sanders and Biden were both above 15% statewide. Bloomberg dropped below that crucial threshold as votes were counted overnight, and Warren was also falling short. If the current vote percentages were final — and they’re definitely not — Sanders would be winning about 60% of the statewide delegates and Biden would be winning about 40%.
Both Sanders and Biden are also above 15% in all 53 congressional districts in early returns. If that holds, they’ll each qualify for at least some delegates in every district. Sanders was leading in 49 districts, while Biden led in four. Considering statewide and district delegates, The New York Times is currently projecting that Sanders will win 202 of California’s delegates, and Biden will win 142.
Bloomberg, meanwhile, was at 15% or higher in 21 districts — about 40% of the total. And Warren was at the qualifying level in just five districts, less than 10% of the total, based on early returns.
Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Buttigieg, who dropped out two days before Election Day and later endorsed Biden, could theoretically pick up a delegate anyway — he was over the 15% threshold in one district, the Palm Springs-area 36th. But he may not hold onto that result after more votes are tallied.
The bad news for Warren is that Sanders and Biden seem at least fairly likely to increase their share as the counting process grinds on. That’s because the mail ballots received before Election Day are counted first, while those dropped at polling stations or mailed on Election Day will likely take days or weeks to be fully included on the board.
Because Biden gained momentum in recent days from prominent late endorsements and his South Carolina victory on Saturday, he’s likely to do better in later voting than he did in early voting; exit polls suggest voters who chose their candidate in the last few days favored the former vice president.
Sanders has dominated among young voters, who are typically more likely to vote on Election Day instead of sending in their ballots early.
Already, the number of districts where Bloomberg and Warren had reached the 15% threshold declined since the results available late Tuesday night and those reported on Wednesday morning.
It’s important to remember there’s a lot of uncertainty in the ballots that remain to be counted. Past California races have swung dramatically between the returns that show up the morning after Election Day and the final results.
For now, it’s still interesting to get a sense in which districts each candidate is doing best.
In returns so far, Sanders is winning his highest vote percentage of any California congressional district in the Los Angeles County-based 40th, where he’s getting 54.6%. The district, which covers parts of East Los Angeles and a swath of suburbs southeast of the city, is the most heavily Latino district in the U.S.
Biden is doing best in the neighboring 43rd District in South L.A. and south-western L.A. County, which is currently represented by Rep. Maxine Waters and has the highest percentage of African American residents of any California district. He’s getting 32.9% there in early returns, although Sanders is narrowly in the lead there.
The four districts where Biden leads Sanders — all of which are quite close — are a grab bag, from the Stockton-area 9th, to the wealthy West L.A. 33rd, to the Palm Springs 36th to the northern San Diego 52nd.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg has his highest vote share in three Bay Area districts — the 11th, the 14th and the 18th, in Contra Costa County and on the Peninsula — where he’s getting 19% each. And Warren’s best is the 13th, Rep. Barbara Lee’s Oakland and Berkeley district, where she’s getting 23.8%, putting her in second place behind Sanders.
In the Bay Area, Warren exceeded the 15% threshold only in the San Francisco-based 12th District, which is represented by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the 13th District, represented by Lee, and the Palo Alto-centered 18th District, represented by Rep. Anna Eshoo. She also did well in two of the wealthiest and most educated L.A.-area districts.
Bloomberg did best in suburban regions. He was above 15% in every Bay Area district except Pelosi’s and Lee’s. While he was below the threshold in most Los Angeles districts, he reached it in early results across most of Orange County and other Southern California suburban areas.