All Betts are still on the Dodgers
The Dodgers, who added a superstar in Mookie Betts, are the only lock for the playoffs in the NL. The other five playoff spots are fair game. The champion Nationals lost All-star third baseman Anthony Rendon. The Braves lost Josh Donaldson, but added several solid pieces. The Reds were aggressive while the Cardinals and Cubs have talent, but were passive in the offseason. The Brewers lost a significant chunk of their core, but still feature arguably the game’s best hitter. Don’t forget about Arizona, New York or Philadelphia either. This is going to be fun.
Ranking the NL West 1. LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Last year: 106-56 (1st place), lost to Washington Nationals in NLDS, 3-2
Key newcomers: OF Mookie Betts, SP David Price, SP Alex Wood, RP Brusdar Graterol, RP Blake Treinen, SP Jimmy Nelson
Key losses: OF Alex Verdugo, SP Hyun-jin Ryu, SP Rich Hill, SP Kenta Maeda,1b David Freese, IF Jedd Gyorko
Best-case scenario: Betts and Price seamlessly transition to the National League, Gavin Lux and Dustin May provide an influx of young talent and the Dodgers finally get the World Series monkey off their back.
Worst-case scenario: The Dodgers fall short of a World Series title and Betts walks in free agency.
2. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Last year: 85-77 (2nd place)
Key newcomers: SP Madison Bumgarner, OF Starling Marte, OF Kole Calhoun, RP Hector Rondon, RP Junior Guerra, C Stephen Vogt
Key losses: IF Wilmer Flores, OF Adam Jones, OF Steven Souza Jr., OF Jarrod Dyson, RP Yoshihisa Hirano, C Alex Avila
Best-case scenario: The additions of Bumgarner and Marte, combined with the existing core headlined by Ketel Marte (no relation), are enough to push Arizona into a wild-card spot.
Worst-case scenario: Ketel Marte regresses after his career season and the Diamondbacks can’t muster enough offense from their lineup, ultimately missing the playoffs.
3. SAN DIEGO PADRES
Last year: 70-92 (5th place)
Key newcomers: OF Tommy Pham, RP Emilio Pagan, RP Drew Pomeranz, SP Zach Davies, OF Trent Grisham, 2B Jurickson Profar
Key losses: OF Manuel Margot, OF Hunter Renfroe, 2B Ian Kinsler, SP Eric Lauer, 2B Luis Urias
Best-case scenario: Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack continue to serve as pillars of San Diego’s future. Top prospects Mackenzie Gore and Luis Patiño pitch well enough in the minors to earn call-ups and solidify San Diego’s rotation.
Worst-case scenario: Tatis Jr. regresses after his amazing freshman campaign, Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer’s contracts become albatrosses, further restricting San Diego’s financial flexibility, and the Padres finish 20 games below .500 for a fifth consecutive season.
4. COLORADO ROCKIES
Last year: 71-91 (4th place)
Key newcomers: C Drew Butera, RP Tyler Kinley
Key losses: 1B Yonder Alonso, SP Tyler Anderson, RP Chad Bettis
Best-case scenario: The Rockies generate enough offense from Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl and Ryan Mcmahon to be somewhat competitive, with top prospect Brendan Rodgers emerging to provide some additional juice.
Worst-case scenario: Colorado’s inactivity in the offseason results in another wasted season and Arenado’s relationship with the front office continues to sour.
5. GIANTS
Last year: 77-85 (3rd place)
Key newcomers: SP Kevin Gausman, SP Drew Smyly, OF Hunter Pence, IF Wilmer Flores, RP Jerry Blevins
Key losses: SP Madison Bumgarner, C Stephen Vogt, OF Kevin Pillar, RP Will Smith
Best-case scenario: Young players such as
Mauricio Dubon, Steven Duggar and Jaylin Davis, among others, emerge as building blocks of the future. The team’s veteran arms, namely Jeff Samardzija, Gausman and Smyly, generate interest at the trade deadline and are dealt for prospects.
Worst-case scenario: Various members of the Giants’ youth struggle in full-time roles and members of their veteran infield continue to regress with age.
Ranking the NL Central 1. CINCINNATI REDS
Last year: 75-87 (4th place)
Key newcomers: OF Nicholas Castellanos, IF Mike Moustakas, OF Shogo Akiyama, SP Wade Miley, RP Pedro Strop
Key losses: IF Jose Peraza, SS José Iglesias
Best-case scenario: Castellanos, Moustakas and Akiyama provide additional firepower and Joey Votto bounces back, giving the Reds enough offense to complement a very respectable starting rotation and win the division.
Worst-case scenario: Cincinnati’s starting rotation can’t replicate its production from last season, the crowded outfield creates problems with getting everyone playing time and the Reds’ postseason drought lives on.
2. CHICAGO CUBS
Last year: 84-78 (3rd place)
Key newcomers: OF Steven Souza Jr., RP Jeremy Jeffress, RP Casey Sadler
Key losses: OF Nicholas Castellanos, SP Cole Hamels, IF Addison Russell, RP Pedro Strop, OF Tony Kemp, RP Derek Holland, OF/IF Ben Zobrist
Best-case scenario: Kris Bryant and Javier Báez play at an MVP level, the pitching staff overachieves as Jon Lester and Yu Darvish reverse recent trends and the Cubs find their way back into the playoffs.
Worst-case scenario: Chicago’s pitching staff becomes a weak link and the offense can’t score enough runs to make up the difference. The championship window further closes as the Cubs miss the playoffs and the team’s relationship with Bryant continues to deteriorate.
3. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Last year: 91-71 (1st place), lost to Washington Nationals in NLCS, 4-0
Key newcomers: SP Kwang Hyun Kim, OF Austin Dean
Key losses: OF Marcell Ozuna, SP Michael Wacha, 1B/OF Jose Martinez, OF Randy
Arozarena
Best-case scenario: St. Louis’ young core of Paul Dejong, Tommy Edman and Harrison Bader translate their first taste of the playoffs into career years at the plate. Dylan Carson earns a midseason callup to provide an extra layer to the offense and the Cardinals get just enough out of their pitching staff to compete for a wild-card spot.
Worst-case scenario: The Cardinals’ inactivity in the offseason comes back to bite them, particularly when it comes to the pitching staff, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina and, to a lesser extent, Paul Goldschmidt show signs of decline and the Cardinals miss the playoffs.
4. MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Last year: 89-73 (2nd place), lost to Washington Nationals in NL Wild Card Game
Key newcomers: OF Avisaíl García, IF Justin Smoak, SS Luis Urias, SP Eric Lauer, SP Brett Anderson, SP Josh Lindblom, IF Jedd Gyorko, IF Ryon Healy, C Omar Narváez, UTIL Brock Holt
Key losses: C Yasmani Grandal, IF Mike Moustakas, SP Zach Davies, RP Drew Pomeranz, IF Travis Shaw, SP Chase Anderson, IF Eric Thames, OF Trent Grisham
Best-case scenario: Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura continue to punish baseballs, Lorenzo Cain bounces back and Milwaukee’s top-of-the-line bullpen makes up for an OK starting rotation and the Brewers compete for the division crown..
Worst-case scenario: The Brewers can’t find enough production to make up for the loss of Grandal, Moustakas and a plethora of others, Cain and Braun begin to show their age and they miss the postseason.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Last year: 69-93 (5th place)
Key newcomers: IF JT Riddle, OF Guillermo Heredia, C Luke Maile
Key losses: OF Starling Marte, OF Melky Cabrera, OF Lonnie Chisenhall, C Elias Díaz, SP Francisco Liriano
Best-case scenario: Bryan Reynolds, Josh Bell and Kevin Newman continue to provide hope for the future and prospect Ke’bryan Hayes makes his way to the majors and Mitch Keller gets comfortable and emerges as a legitimate starting option alongside Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer and Joe Musgrove, all of which make the Pirates a sneakily competitive team.
Worst-case scenario: Pittsburgh’s foundational pieces regress and the Pirates rack up another 90-loss season.
Ranking the NL East 1. ATLANTA BRAVES
Last year: 97-65 (1st place), lost to St. Louis Cardinals in NLDS, 3-2
Key newcomers: OF Marcell Ozuna, SP Cole Hamels, RP Will Smith, C Travis d’arnaud
Key losses: 3B Josh Donaldson, SP Dallas Keuchel, SP Julio Teheran, C Brian Mccann
Best-case scenario: The additions of Oznua and d’arnaud help ease the burden of losing Donaldson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies and Mike Soroka continue their ascension into stardom, the pitching staff sneakily emerges as one of the league’s best and the Braves make their first NLCS appearance since 2001.
Worst-case scenario: Atlanta’s offensive production is weak outside of Acuña Jr., Albies and Freddie Freeman, the bullpen isn’t as good as advertised and the Braves miss the playoffs.
2. WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Last year: 93-69 (2nd place), won World Series over Houston Astros, 4-3
Key newcomers: RP Will Harris, IF Starlin Castro, 1B Eric Thames
Key losses: 3B Anthony Rendon, OF Gerardo Parra, 2B Brian Dozier
Best-case scenario: The returning crop carries the swagger from last season’s championship, the starting rotation remains strong as ever, Juan Soto emerges as an MVP candidate and the Nationals win the division outright.
Worst-case scenario: The loss of Rendon is too great a loss for the offense, Harris isn’t enough to stabilize a questionable bullpen and the Nationals miss the playoffs.
3. NEW YORK METS
Last year: 86-76 (3rd place)
Key newcomers: SP Rick Porcello, RP Dellin Betances, SP Michael Wacha, OF Jake Marisnick
Key losses: SP Zack Wheeler, 3B Todd Frazier, OF Juan Lagares, IF Joe Panik
Best-case scenario: New York’s hitting core continues to mash, Betances, Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia have bounceback seasons to form an elite bullpen and the Mets come away with the division.
Worst-case scenario: Pete Alonso, J.D. Davis and Jeff Mcneil can’t replicate last year’s offensive numbers, the bullpen is mediocre, Yoenis Céspedes and Robinson Cano’s contracts become sunk costs and the Mets miss the playoffs.
4. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Last year: 81-81 (4th place)
Key newcomers: SP Zack Wheeler, SS Didi Gregorius
Key losses: OF Corey Dickerson, SP Jason Vargas, RP Pat Neshek, IF César Hernández, IF Maikel Franco
Best-case scenario: Behind incumbents Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto, the addition of Gregorius and a healthy Andrew Mccutchen, the Phillies become a formidable offensive team, scoring enough runs to mask a questionable pitching staff and compete for a wild-card spot.
Worst-case scenario: The pitching staff’s lack of depth sinks any aspirations of postseason contention and the Harper-era Phillies once again miss the postseason.
5. MIAMI MARLINS
Last year: 57-105 (5th place)
Key newcomers: OF Corey Dickerson, IF Jonathan Villar, RP Yimi García, 1B Jesús Aguilar, C Francisco Cervelli
Key losses: IF Starlin Castro, OF Curtis Granderson, IF Neil Walker, RP Wei-yin Chen, IF Martín Prado
Best-case scenario: Brian Anderson and Isan Díaz have great seasons at the plate and give the Marlins’ offense some long-term clarity, veterans get flipped at the deadline for prospects. Sixto Sanchez earns a midseason call-up and looks the part of a future ace and the Marlins get another good pick for another last-place finish.
Worst-case scenario: Miami records another 100-plus loss season without any future building blocks rising to the surface.