Recklessness will lead to new shutdowns and economic pain
WASHINGTON >> We keep waiting to see what the “new normal” will be like. But I have the sinking feeling that it’s already here.
Social distancing has managed to keep the coronavirus pandemic from overwhelming the entire nation’s health care system the way it did for a time in New York City. But the steep rise in COVID-19 cases and deaths isn’t being followed by an equally steep decline. Rather, we seem to have reached a plateau.
New York is clearly past its peak: New cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all gradually going down. But those tragic numbers are still rising in much of the rest of the country. Last week, as for most of April, COVID-19 was one of the leading causes of death in the nation. The New York Times reported Tuesday that an internal Trump administration estimate predicts daily COVID-19 deaths nationwide could rise to 3,000 by the beginning of June, roughly twice the daily toll now.
Yet, as New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo noted Monday, draconian stay-at-home restrictions are “not a sustainable situation.” People need to be let out of their homes. Children need to be educated. The economy will have to be roused from its induced coma.
COVID-19 will someday be defeated by a safe and effective vaccine. But the fastest-ever vaccine development to date (for mumps) took four years. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, said Sunday we may have a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of the year “on paper.” But written formulae, however brilliant, cannot be injected into veins.
So, for now, we’re going to have to find a way to coexist with this pathogen.
If it’s confirmed that having had the disease and developed antibodies confers immunity, perhaps survivors can resume their normal activities, and those whose work requires upclose-and-personal contact can somehow have their COVID-immune status certified. Unless and until we have universal testing, however, there’s no way to know who’s safe and who’s not.
The rest of us will venture out more slowly and cautiously, with masks now a routine part of our wardrobe. The most vulnerable — those over 65 and those suffering from preexisting conditions such as heart disease or diabetes — will likely be the last to emerge from isolation.
But it’s hard to imagine how large crowds, such as those for sports events, can safely gather before there’s a vaccine. We may have to watch sports on television — assuming athletes’ immunity status and safety can be guaranteed.
But what about other situations in which we’re usually in close quarters? Restaurants can social distance diners, but fewer tables mean less revenue; many restaurants may not survive. Retailers must meter the number of shoppers allowed inside at any given time, which may make browsing rather nerve-wracking. Theaters will suffer, if they even reopen. Or perhaps watching a film amid a crowd is over. Drivein theaters, just barely keeping the movies alive right now, might make a permanent comeback.
Airline travel presents an especially tough problem: People need to move from place to place, yet airliners present a captive audience for opportunistic germs. I don’t know if we’ll ever go so far as to require travelers to present “immunity passports” along with their government ID’s. But at a minimum, I think there will be temperature checks to identify those who might have active disease and be spreading it, and perhaps even rapid testing.
Governments and major health insurers have wisely decided to make COVID-19 testing, treatment and medications free of charge. That’s one emergency measure that should be made permanent — and expanded into a national system of truly universal health care. This pandemic offers a vivid illustration of the fact that the health of the individual depends on the health of the community.
And we are a community, whether we like it or not. Self-interest and the common interest are one and the same. Businesses that reopen without adequately making customers feel safe will fail. Widespread recklessness will lead to new shutdowns and more economic pain.
We are all in this together. Some of us may not like that, but the coronavirus doesn’t care.