Experts doubt Mexico’s claims about falling curve

Mexico’s government plans to reopen parts of the economy as soon as next week, even as researchers and health officials cast doubts on its claim the contagion curve is flattening.

Mexico reported a record 2,437 new cases Friday along with 290 more deaths, and several of the capital’s hospitals approached capacity. Still, Deputy Health Minister Hugo Lopez Gatell said there are signs the rate of contagion has begun to slow as the country comes under increasing international pressure to reopen global supply chains.

A former health official and a group of Mexican researchers say the fresh numbers suggest the curve is still on an upward trajectory. With one of the lowest coronavirus testing rates in the region, hospitalizations in Mexico may well be the better bellwether for gauging the scope of the pandemic and when it’s safe to reopen. Those numbers are grim.

In the nation’s capital, at least 76% of all hospital beds are occupied, and 63% of ventilators are in use, Lopez Gatell said Friday. That’s up from 58% on April 29. More than a quarter of all coronavirus cases are concentrated in Mexico City.

“We can’t say the curve is falling or even that it’s reaching a plateau,” said Alejandro Macias, Mexico’s influenza czar during the 2009 outbreak. “We’d need weeks of falling numbers to be able to say that. It’s fine to make plans to reopen, but we need to wait longer to be able to say we’ve reached the peak.”

Public health officials and organizations, including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, say economies shouldn’t start to reopen until there is a decline in overall cases or positive tests within a 14-day period.

Saturated hospitals in Mexico City are turning people away, Reforma newspaper reported Wednesday, with ambulances and private cars arriving at emergency rooms only to be redirected elsewhere.

As of Friday, 16 hospitals in the metropolitan area had “critical” capacity, 25 reported “good” and 32 reported occupancy somewhere between 50% and 89%, without specifying, according to the city’s data.

The country’s confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 45,032 on Friday, the Health Ministry said.

Deaths rose to 4,767.