AC Transit could cut dozens of East Bay bus routes

AC Transit could eliminate dozens of routes and slash service on many others as the East Bay bus system limps through the coronavirus pandemic and braces for what could be a long-lasting recession.

Transbay lines and already limited service in the East Bay hills would bear the brunt of the proposed cuts. But riders throughout AC Transit’s sprawling service area, which stretches throughout western Contra Costa and Alameda counties, could wind up with less frequent bus service, or see their routes discontinued or consolidated with others nearby.

AC Transit’s board will hear a presentation on the plan at its meeting Wednesday, kicking off a lengthy process to rework the network. The board is expected to vote on a plan early next year following a public hearing; the service cuts would take effect in the summer of 2021.

Like other public transportation agencies, AC Transit is already running a reduced schedule and has not been collecting fares since coronavirus lockdown orders chased away most of its passengers this spring.

In a recent budget presentation, officials estimated the agency is losing $5 million per month from not collecting fares, and millions more from declining sales tax revenue.

At its lowest point this spring, ridership was down by 74%, a spokesman said.

Transit agencies widely expect that luring riders back onto buses and trains will be a years-long process as the pandemic and the recession it created drag on.

With that grim outlook, AC Transit’s planners are considering a sliding scale of service cuts, likely starting with a 15% reduction that would save the system $42.4 million per year, and potentially escalating to a 30% cut saving $84.7 million. It isn’t alone in facing those tough choices, as the San Francisco Chronicle reported Thursday that Muni is considering cutting as many as 40 lines because of the economic downturn.

This was supposed to be a celebratory year for AC Transit, which will start service on its new bus rapid transit line along International Boulevard in Oakland and San Leandro later this summer.

Now, though, the agency is weighing worst-case scenario cuts that would be more than twice as severe as those it enacted during the Great Recession.

If that comes to pass, AC Transit would eliminate more than three dozen bus lines. Some of the eliminated routes would be at least partially replaced by other lines, or could be spared if the agency only needs to enact the less severe 15% cut, depending on how quickly revenues return.

The plan does not include any layoffs of AC Transit workers, as the agency will instead look to reduce labor costs by not hiring to replace operators who leave the system.

AC Transit staff wrote in a board memo that their plans prioritize “major corridors and trunk lines at the expense of service in lower-density areas,” namely the hills, where “only a handful of lines will remain.” The agency would eliminate 10 Transbay lines and reduce frequency on seven others.

Planners reasoned that riders along those lines tend to be wealthier and are more likely to have other transportation options — cars, for those in the hills, and BART, for Transbay riders — compared to those in other areas AC Transit serves.

The bus rapid transit line is not being targeted for any service cuts.