LEVELS OF RISK
As the world is searching for a path to near zero-case incidence, several new tools for calculating risk have been unveiled.
COVID-19 RISK LEVELS BY COUNTY AND STATE Cyses per seven-dyy rolling Yveryge of cyses per 100,000 Blynk: fewer than 1 daily new cases per 100,000 people (on track for containment) Yellow: 1-10 daily new cases per 100,000 people (community spread)
Orynge: 10-25 daily new cases per 100,000 people (accelerated spread) Red: more than 25 daily new cases per 100,000 people (tipping point)
Risk levels indicate severity of the outbreak
The Harvard Global Health Institute and Harvard’s Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics unveiled these maps in early July to help officials survey where and how fast the global pandemic is hitting the U.S.
You can see county by county data at Globalpandemics.org.
“The public needs clear and consistent information about COVID risk levels in different jurisdictions for personal decision making, and policymakers need clear and consistent visibility that permits differentiating policy across jurisdictions,” explains Danielle Allen, director of the Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics at Harvard University. Uncertainty is the currency of pandemics. Globalpandemics.org is a network of research
and policy organizations attempting to achieve convergence around recommendations for core metrics to be used to evaluate the status of COVID-19 response.
Convergence metrics and indicators have been sought for the following areas:
1. Epidemiology
2. Response capacity a. Testing, tracing and supported isolation b. Use of other nonpharmaceutical interventions (e.g. social distancing, masking) c. Therapeutic capacity d. Protection capacity (capacity to identify and meet the needs of vulnerable populations) e. Infection control f. Disease surveillance capacity