San Mateo County not on coronavirus watchlist — yet

Rate of transmission has appeared to exceed benchmark since July

San Mateo County stands alone in the greater Bay Area, an island surrounded by others whose surging coronavirus cases landed them on California’s COVID-19 monitoring list that requires closure of everything from indoor classrooms, offices and shopping malls to gyms, churches, hair salons and barbershops.

Not San Mateo County. As of Monday, you could still go inside for a haircut from East Palo Alto to Pacifica or even work out inside a fitness center in Redwood City. And for the moment, San Mateo County stands as the only place in the region that can welcome students back to classrooms without special permission.

But there is little cause for celebration. Local officials and businesses expect they may land on the list any day now. San Mateo County’s rate of disease transmission has appeared to exceed the state’s benchmark since early July, but mysteriously it has escaped the state’s ominous designation.

“Of course we’re happy our businesses are allowed to remain open,” said Cheryl Angeles, president of the San Mateo Area Chamber of Commerce. “I can go get my hair dyed this week, which is desperately needed. But the governor could shut us down any day as well. We’re all hanging in and holding our breath.”

San Mateo County is the only coastal California county between Mendocino and the Mexi

can border not on the state watchlist, after neighboring Santa Cruz County to the south joined it Sunday.

But San Mateo County Health Chief Louise F. Rogers acknowledged her county’s 14-day rolling average has topped the state’s benchmark of 100 coronavirus cases per 100,000 residents, which “will likely put us on the list soon.”

“We would like to see the state re-evaluate some of their measures since they are not all measures of the spread of the virus or of our capacity to manage,” Rogers said.

California has been steadily clamping down on business activity as reopenings in May led to a summer case surge. The state is closing in on half a million COVID-19 cases, with more than 8,400 deaths. Cases are up nearly 40% and deaths 20% over two weeks ago, prompting Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday to warn Californians to “wake up to that reality.”

Newsom on July 13 ordered a statewide indoor ban on dining, wine tasting, museums, movie theaters, card rooms and other family entertainment from arcades and bowling to miniature golf and batting cages.

But counties on the state’s monitoring list more than three days also must close shopping malls, gyms, places of worship, offices in noncritical sectors, barbershops, hair and nail salons and body waxing unless they can operate outside or by pickup.

Counties can end up on that list a number of ways: More than 100 new cases per 100,000 people over 14 days, more than 8% positive test results over seven days, a change of more than 10% in the three-day average of COVID-19 hospitalized patients, more than 80% of intensive care unit beds filled.

The state’s county data monitoring chart suggests the case rate is the hardest metric to meet, with 37 of California’s 58 counties over the 100 cases per 100,000 people threshold. Of the other metrics, 22 have a positive test rate over 8%, 14 have fewer than 20% of ICU beds available and six have a hospitalization rate over 10%. All 58 counties meet two other metrics for case testing and ventilator availability.

The case rate is calculated over a 14-day period with a three-day lag to account for reporting delays, so the rate as of Monday would reflect the 14 days from July 10-23. But for some reason, which state officials won’t explain, it reports different figures for what is seemingly the same 14-day case rate depending where you look.

For example, the state’s county data monitoring chart gives San Mateo County a check mark for being below 100 cases per 100,000 over 14 days; the county’s own health chief said it’s 101.2; and even more perplexing, the state’s county data and monitoring status map shows San Mateo County’s rate at 140.1 per 100,000 over the last 14 days.

That’s higher than neighboring Santa Clara County, which has been on the state’s watchlist for weeks. The state’s sites show Santa Clara’s disease transmission rate at 139 per 100,000 in one spot and 114.7 on another.

For residents and businesses, the ever-shifting edicts from Sacramento have been challenging and frustrating to keep up with. Newsom on July 17 said schools in monitoring-list counties must start the fall instructional year teaching students remotely through online courses.

In San Mateo County, some schools have clung to hope they can welcome kids back to class with distancing and hygiene protocols.

The Archdiocese of San Francisco announced last week that “since San Mateo is not currently on the California COVID-19 Watch List, all elementary schools in San Mateo County will reopen with in-person instruction following their approved Reopening Plans on their first scheduled day of school.”

But the archdiocese noted that they “will be required to move to a distance learning program if San Mateo is placed on the California COVID-19 Watch List between now and the first day of school.”

Businesses, meanwhile, keep an anxious eye on the watchlist. Angeles said that while many on the list can still operate outdoors, that won’t last once the weather turns. They are struggling as it is, she said, and being added to the watchlist would be “horrible.”

“I think we’d see a lot of businesses close up if that happens,” Angeles said. “I’m keeping my fingers crossed.”