Seven takeaways from Dr. Fauci’s talk
Expect vaccine news in November or December, with distribution starting as early as next year
Dr. Anthony Fauci’s assertive and insightful voice came to the San Francisco Bay Area on Friday, where he appeared as a special guest at the Silicon Valley Leadership Group’s Annual Forum, a virtual version of the group’s once-a-year luncheon.
The nation’s top infectious disease expert, Fauci was interviewed by Leadership Group CEO Ahmad Thomas about the the state of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Here are some takeaways from their conversation, which has been edited.
WE'RE NOT IN A "SECOND WAVE" OR “THIRD WAVE" - BECAUSE WE NEVER GOT OUT OF THE FIRST WAVE >>
“When we first got hit badly, it was dominated by what was going on in the New York metropolitan area. But we never got down to a real low baseline because the other areas of the country began to get ‘ hot.’
“We saw a resurgence of cases, dominated by the southern states of Florida, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, and Southern California. Now, fast forward to today, we’re seeing hot spots literally throughout the entire country.”
HE'S REALLY WORRIED ABOUT THIS FALL AND WINTER >>
“As we enter into the cooler months, much of what is going to be done is going to be done indoors. So I’m concerned that unless we do something to turn this around, we’re going to have a very difficult winter But if we have universal wearing of masks, physical distancing, avoiding congregate settings in crowds, doing things more outdoors, washing hands, (then) we do not necessarily have to accept the inevitability of these major surges.”
EXPECT VACCINE NEWS IN NOVEMBER OR DECEMBER, WITH DISTRIBUTION STARTING EARLY NEXT YEAR >>
“We should be able to get an inkling of whether or not we have a safe and effective vaccine sometime in mid- to the end of November, or the beginning of December. I don’t know how effec
tive it’s going to be, I hope it’s going to be somewhere around 70% to 75%.
“If we’re successful, we will be able to start administering vaccine doses by the end of this calendar year or, more likely, in the beginning of 2021. So that hopefully by the time we get to the third quarter of 2021, we will have vaccinated the vast majority of people who want to get vaccinated.”
HE KNOWS WHY PEOPLE ARE LEERY. BUT HE PROMISES TRANSPARENCY >>
“I understand the skepticism that people have, for a number of reasons. There have been some mixed signals and some issues that have come out of Washington.
“The way around that is to be completely transparent with the American public about what the process is. Every vaccine trial has a Data and Safety Monitoring Board — a completely independent group of clinicians, vaccinologists, statisticians and ethicists who look at the data. They don’t answer to the President. They don’t answer to the pharmaceuti
cal company.
“Then the career scientists of the FDA will look at the data. And another independent committee, called the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, will look at the data and advise the FDA as to whether to grant either an ‘emergency use authorization,’ or actual licensure.
“I can promise you that the process is independent of political manipulation. And I will be very open with the American public about my impression of whether or not this is safe and effective.”
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN ONE SAFE AND EFFECTIVE VACCINE. SHOULD YOU WAIT? >>
“I hope and I believe that we will have more than one safe and effective vaccine. It is conceivable that some vaccines might be more effective in children vs. pregnant women, vs. adults, vs. the elderly.
“The common question I get asked is: ‘ Well, if a vaccine is proved to be effective, should I try and get it right now — or maybe hold off and wait to see if you get a better one, two or three months later?’
“It depends on how effec
tive it is. And what your risk category is. If you’re a very young, healthy, robust person, the chances of you getting into trouble with COVID-19 is relatively low. If you’re someone with an underlying condition, or an elderly person with an underlying condition, you might not want to wait. You might want to say ‘I’m going to get the first vaccine available, because I’m in a risk group.’
“So it really is going to mean determining what your relative risk is.
IN THE NEXT MONTH OR SO, WE’LL SEE MORE AND BETTER THERAPIES >>
“We have some good treatments for advanced disease. That’s the reason why the death rates are going down — because we know how better to treat people.
“What we really do need a lot more of are drugs and other things that are given early. There are a number of clinical trials looking at convalescent plasma, monoclonal antibodies, hyperimmune globulin and a number of other interventions.
“I would expect that in the next month or so, you’re going to be seeing more therapies, particularly those that can be given
early in the course of disease.”
DON’T BE LIKE DR. FAUCI. HE HASN’T TAKEN A DAY OFF SINCE JANUARY >> “I don’t think I should be an example of how one should be taking care of themselves, because I’m in a very unusual position. I’m running the institute that’s responsible for the development of vaccines and therapies, at the same time as being a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force.
“I haven’t gotten a day off since January, which is not a healthy thing. And the hours are really grueling. But it just is what it is. I just have to ‘suck it up’ and say, ‘This is a very unusual time.’
“My time will come to kick up my heels and go have a beer or something. But right now, it’s not going to happen. There are just too many important things going on. So don’t use me as a model.”