Pandemic slashes shopper confidence

California consumer confidence for October was 25% below its pre-pandemic level in the final survey before Election Day.

If voters decide based on pocketbook issues, 2020 makes for intriguing discussion. Who gets the credit — or blame — for how COVID-19 was handled and its devastating economic impact?

The Conference Board’s monthly polling of shoppers’ psyche shows the California index rising for the second consecutive month but still significantly below February’s pre-pandemic level. Unemployment statewide has improved from springtime’s historic highs, but the state economy — slowed by Gov. Gavin Newsom’s strict business limitations — still has the nation’s third-highest jobless rate.

Both shoppers’ view of current financial conditions and their outlook for the economy improved modestly in October. Is that enough of an upswing to change any voter’s mind in, say, local or statewide races?

Now let’s take a longer-term view.

California confidence sits 5% below levels seen four years ago — just before Donald Trump won an upset victory for the presidency. Is that dash of heightened anxiety an election factor? Or do voters give him credit for what was before COVID-19 a healthy economy with a 38% jump in confidence to its high during Trump’s four years in office?

Consumer confidence nationwide has shown similar swings. It’s down 24% since February, leaving the index up 0.1% since October 2016. U.S. confidence, at its recent peak, had soared 37% since the last presidential election.

The Conference Board does confidence indexes for seven other states — and some are key political battlegrounds. Here’s how shoppers’ psyche has fared.

TEXAS >> Down 33% since February and off 14% in four years. But there was a 33% rise prepandemic.

NEW YORK >> Down 29% since February and off 9% in four years. Pre-pandemic? 50% rise.

FLORIDA >> Down 35% since February and off 1% in four years. Pre-pandemic? 56% rise.

ILLINOIS >> Down 38% since February but up 26% in four years. Pre-pandemic? 141% rise.

PENNSYLVANIA >> Down 30% since February and off 7% in four years. Pre-pandemic? 32% rise.

OHIO >> Down 40% since February and off 1% in four years. Prepandemic? 91% rise.

MICHIGAN >> Down 15% since February but up 20% in four years. Pre-pandemic? 53% rise.

Politics is very much a whathave-you- done-for-me-lately game. Look at consumer confidence four years ago in the four battleground states tracked by the Conference Board. In October 2016, you saw a decidedly sour consumer view of economic prospects …

FLORIDA >> Up 3% in the year before the 2016 election vs. 78% gain the previous three years.

PENNSYLVANIA >> Up 1% pre-election vs. 75% gain the previous three years.

OHIO >> Down 17% pre-election vs. 50% gain the previous three years.

MICHIGAN >> Down 15% pre-election vs. 106% gain the previous three years.

And Trump won all four states.