Raiders need plan to avoid upset by 0-11 Jets
The circumstances are less than ideal, but if there was ever a week to be missing two key players, it would be against the New York Jets.
Running back Josh Jacobs and safety Johnathan Abram remained behind to watch on television as the Raiders (6- 5) fight to remain in the wild card playoff chase on the road today against an 0-11 Jets team that is five games from the second 0-16 season in NFL history.
Given that New York’s final five opponents are the Raiders, Seattle, the Los Angeles Rams, Cleveland and New England, you’ve got to like their chances.
The Jets have the NFL’S 32nd ranked offense, are averaging 13.8 points per game and have the 28thranked defense. They’ve been outscored by 170 points and are due a thorough housecleaning as soon
as the season concludes.
Raiders coach Jon Gruden won’t hear of it.
“They’re a handful,” he said. “This will be a fist-fight, no doubt about it.”
Sounds over the top, but Gruden is wired that way. He goes into every game seeing losing as a possibility and every game as a fight to the death. His team is another matter, but Gruden has two things going in his favor in terms of the Raiders taking the Jets seriously. The first is last week’s 43- 6 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, a pummeling that brings home the reality that any week is a potential loss with the requisite amount of turnovers (five) and penalties (11 for 141 yards).
Gruden wants to see some fire.
“I don’t really worry about anyone else’s mindset. I worry about our mindset,” Gruden said. “We have to have a starving-to-death mentality to get back in the postseason and the Jets are going to play hard.”
The second source of motivation is last year’s 34-3 loss to the Jets in Week 12, the game that began the unraveling of a once-promising season that finished at 7-9.
“If we don’t bring it on Sunday, they’re going to get after us again,” quarterback Derek Carr said. “We have to make sure that we bring it and we’re ready to fight come Sunday or else they could possibly get their first win and I know that they are hungry for it.”
Five ways the Raiders avoid a third straight loss and improve to 7-5:
1. Dominate up front
The biggest reason Carr and the Raiders offense was such a disaster against Atlanta is the Falcons dominated at the point of attack. Two of Carr’s three lost fumbles came on hits he never saw. Jacobs (7 carries, 27 yards) and Devontae Booker (5 carries, 6 yards) couldn’t get on track. Keep in mind Jacobs had a 16yard run, so the Raiders’ other 13 carries went for 24 yards.
Despite all the issues at left guard and right tackle, the Raiders were whipped up front in a way they hadn’t been since a 46-20 loss to Tampa Bay on Oct. 25. And in that game, there was a legitimate excuse — the entire line didn’t practice all week for purposes of contact tracing after Trent Brown’s bout with COVID-19.
Against the Falcons, it was an oldfashioned thrashing, and it was stunning to watch because the Raiders line had played so well all year it was taken for granted.
2. Rediscover the run
Without Jacobs, the Raiders could go centipede with rotating backs Booker, Jalen Richard and Theo Riddick. They’ve rushed for just 139 yards in the last two games against the Chiefs and Falcons. The Jets happen to be pretty good against the run and are ranked 11th in the NFL at 111.0 yards per game and are giving up 3.8 yards per attempt.
The Raiders don’t have to run wild, just far enough forward progress to stay in reasonable down and distance and set up Carr to complete high percentage passes. Get somewhere near the 50-50 run/pass split Gruden likes to see in his offense. And if they’re having a good day on the ground, they can keep at it. Persistence is a big factor in any running game.
“I think there are still creases, there’s still room,” Carr said. “Any time we go three-and- out, or turn the ball over, that’s a lot of shortened possessions which equals a lot of yards and not a lot of touches.”
3. Play a clean game
It’s not necessary to play as they did against the Chiefs (either time) on offense or as they did against Denver on defense. The Raiders don’t have to look great. Methodical and mistake-free will work just fine. Avoid the mistakes that lead to upset losses.
The surest way to give the Jets life is through more turnovers and penalties. The penalty problem has really gotten out of hand the past couple of weeks, giving the Chiefs and Falcons nine free first downs.
Pass interference, defensive holding, roughing the passer, unnecessary roughness . . . the Raiders have had them all. A solid blueprint would be the Raiders’ road win in Cleveland, which they won 17-7 in bad weather. They avoided mistakes, played efficiently and won without bells and whistles.
4. Get after Darnold
The third overall pick of the draft in 2018, quarterback Sam Darnold, according to coach Adam Gase, is finally healthy and has all his receivers available for the first time.
Darnold is mobile, still only 23, and can be dangerous in a rhythm. He could be a coveted reclamation project for some team if the Jets blow everything up following the season.
Last season against the Raiders, Darnold had the best game of his career in a win, going 20 of 29 for 315 yards, two touchdowns and a 127.8 passer rating. He also ran for a score. The Raiders sacked him only once.
Therein lies the key to Darnold, who has been known to “see ghosts” when protection breaks down and pass rushers are coming in from all angles. That’s problematic for the Raiders, who don’t have the sacks to show for it but have at least slightly upgraded their pass rush in recent weeks. Abram, who won’t play, has been deployed often as a blitzer by Paul Guenther.
If Darnold has ample time, he can be dangerous. Carr needs to be better than Darnold and the Raiders need to be better than the Jets on third down.
5. Find Waller for big yards
Waller has 64 catches for only 542 yards. That’s 8.5 yards per catch and 4 or 5 yards shy of where a player of his skill set should be. He’s got five touchdowns and has proved adept at the tight throws in the end zone that Carr throws well.
Someone of Waller’s size and skill should be involved in more big plays. He’s almost impossible to match up with, with the agility of a wide receiver that linebackers can’t cover and the size of a tight end that should be a problem for defensive backs 6-foot and under.
Waller has just a single 100-yard game, with 105 yards against New Orleans in Week 2. And it took 12 receptions to get there.