California economic recovery expected to lag behind nation.
Santa Clara County is regaining its lost jobs faster than the rest of state
California’s weak economy will take longer than the nation to recover from its coronavirusinduced maladies due to strict business lockdowns imposed by state and local government agencies, according to a downbeat economic forecast released Wednesday.
One bright spot: Santa Clara County has recovered the jobs it lost during months of business shutdowns at a notably faster pace than California, the Bay Area, and every other major metro center in the state, the UCLA Anderson Forecast reported Wednesday.
“Silicon Valley, the Inland Empire, San Diego, Sacramento, and the Delta have fared better and contracted less” in terms of job losses compared with California, the Bay Area and San Francisco, the UCLA Anderson Forecast stated.
Santa Clara County in October had 93.4% of the jobs that it had in February, which was the last month before coronavirus-linked business shutdowns began, this news organization’s analysis of state government statistics shows.
The South Bay’s recovery from the job losses is the strongest of any major metro center in California, the analysis shows.
The Bay Area in October had 90.9% of the jobs it had in February, San Francisco-San Mateo had 90%, the East Bay had 89.5%, and California 91.6%.
Santa Clara County’s recovery pace is on par with the United States overall. The U. S. as of October had 93.4% of the jobs the nation had in February.
An economic and employment rebound in California is expected to begin later than the nation’s, the UCLA Anderson Forecast stated in a prepared release.
Job totals in California are expected to grow by 3.6% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022, the Anderson Forecast predicted. The unemployment rate in California is expected to average 6.9% in 2021, 5.2% in 2022, and 4.4% in 2023.
The bleak reality: Even three years from now, California’s jobless rate still will be higher than the record-low level of 3.9% that was achieved for several consecutive months before the business shutdowns.
“The COVID-19 pandemic’s outsized and unpredictable impact on California is expected to continue, at the very least, for the immediate
future,” the Anderson Forecast said.
In large part, this is because California and its metro areas have decided to prescribe remedies for their coronavirus woes that feature business closures and restrictions on gatherings, the Anderson Forecast economists stated.
To worsen matters for California’s ailing economy, the state depends heavily on tourism and retail, two industries that have been particularly hard hit.
Hotels, restaura nts, stores, airlines, and travelrelated companies have conducted massive layoffs during the nine months of business shutdowns.
About the only bright spot for California: Once the state does start to rebound, California might
enjoy an economic and employment upswing that is stronger than the United States.
“The state has higher unemployment than in the U. S. overall, and the state is due to grow faster than the U. S. once restrictions are lifted and the pandemic is in the rear-view mirror,” UCLA Anderson Forecast economists Jerry Nickelsburg and Leila Bengali wrote.
The forecasters believe the South Bay is wellpoised to prosper with a strong economy and sturdy job market once the coronavirus woes are subdued.
“Silicon Valley is rebounding with the demand for new software technologies for the new way in which business and socializing are being conducted today,” the Anderson Forecast stated.