Cowboys in playoffs? Aldon Smith doubts it
Most of the Cowboys aren’t focused as much on their 4-9 record these days. They’ve got their eyes on something much bigger: A division title.
Not Aldon Smith, though. Smith, the former 49ers and Raiders pass rush standout, has gone through way too much for way too long on his path back to the NFL to get sidetracked by illusions. He looks at t he C owboys record and sees it for what it really is.
“We suck right now,” Smith said on the Cowboys’ radio station, “The Fan,” KRLDFM (105.3) Monday. “I love these guys. We haven’t made the plays we need to make, but we will. Stick along for the ride. (Stuff) happens.”
The Cowboys head into Sunday’s game against the 49ers in last place in the weak NFC East. They’ve won just one of their four division games and they’ve been outscored by a whopping 103 points this season. Amazingly, the Cowboys still have a chance to continuing their trend since 2013 of winning the division every other season. But, as Smith alluded to, stuff has to happen.
“As long as you’re mathematically in it, you’re doing everything you can to stay in the mix,” Cowboys vice president Stephen Jones said on The Fan. “We’re mathematically in it. We know we’re going to need a lot of help.”
It won’t take much for the math to eliminate the Cowboys. FiveThirtyEight’s research shows there’s a 99% chance Dallas won’t make the postseason.
If first-place Washington (6-7) wins just one more game, Dallas’ division hopes are done. The Cowboys also need the Giants (5-8) and Eagles (4-8-1), the other two NFC East teams ahead of them, to each lose at least two of their remaining games.
Believe it or not, there’s still a sliver of a shot that Dallas could get one of the NFC’s three wild-card spots, according to the Dallas Morning News. Aside from winning all of its games, Dallas would need a lot to happen.
As for the 49ers (5-8), they also still have a complicated way to get into the postseason. Aside from winning out, San Francisco, like Dallas, would need a lot of help.
So, are we ready for another in a long line of 49ersCowboys games with postseason implications on the line?
Three reasons for 49ers’ optimism
DEFENSIVE DEFICIENCIES >> Under the direction of defensive coordinator and ex49ers coach Mike Nolan, Dallas has the worst rushing defense in the NFL — allowing 162.7 yards per game. Week in and week out, the Cowboys have seemed to get manhandled at the line of scrimmage. Their inability to slow down the run is one of the biggest reasons Dallas has also permitted the most points in the league — an average of 30.8 per game. On the bright side, Dallas is coming off one of its best defensive showings of the season. The Cowboys held the Bengals to just 101 yards rushing and Cincinnati’s seven points was by far the least amount of points Dallas has given up this season. Until Sunday’s 30-7 win, the 20 points they surrendered in a season-opening loss to the Rams was the fewest points scored against Dallas. The showing Sunday came a week after the Ravens ran up 294 rushing yards in a 34-17 thrashing of the Cowboys. COWBOYS’ STAR HAS NOT SHONE >> All-Pro running back Ezekiel Elliott has been a shadow of himself this season. He has topped the 100yard mark just once in 13 games while averaging just 64 yards per game. That’s not what the Cowboys expected when they made Elliott the NFL’s highest-paid running back (six-year, $90 million deal) before last season.
BIG TROUBLES ON THE LINE >> Once the NFL’s gold standard, the Cowboys’ offensive line is a shadow of itself. Injuries and the retirement of 29-year-old Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick before the season have taken a toll. Star linemen Tyron Smith (neck) and La’el Collins (hip) were also lost for the year earlier this season. Guard Zack Martin (calf) is on injured reserve and may not return this year. Through 10 games, Dallas had already used 15 different line combinations, including four left tackles, three right guards and three right tackles, two left guards and two centers. It’s probably not surprising Dallas has given up the ninthmost sacks (34) this season.
Three reasons for 49ers’ pessimism
A MOTIVATED ALDON SMITH >> Smith has been one of the league’s brighter stories this year. He’s overcome substance abuse and personal issues to return to the field after a four-year absence. Smith would love nothing better than to come up big in his first game against the team that picked him seventh overall in the 2011 draft. He’d need to step up his game in order to do so, though. After a strong start, including a three-sack game against the Seahawks in Week 2, Smith has just five sacks overall in 13 games. He hasn’t had a sack in his last six games. But, as he’s proven with his comeback, perseverance can go a long way.
THE COOPER REVIVAL >> Amari Cooper, the former Raiders No. 1 pick, has quietly established himself again as one of the most reliable receivers in the league. Cooper is nearing career-high totals with his 80 catches for 942 yards and five touchdowns. He needs four catches, 247 receiving yards and three TD catches over the final three games in order to set a new standard for himself. Since arriving in Dallas, Cooper has become a fixture on Cowboys’ thirddown plays. Two out of every three of his catches with Dallas have resulted in a first down. Like in Oakland, when he had a standout across from him (Michael Crabtree), Cooper has had some pressure taken off him with the emergence of Cowboys rookie CeeDee Lamb, who has 61 catches for 742 yards and four TDs.
SOLID MAN IN THE MIDDLE >> The Cowboys’ overall performance on defense may stink, but two-time Pro Bowl defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence hasn’t been part of the problem. Just ask the analytics folks. Lawrence is the NFL’s third-highest graded edge defender this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Lawrence’s 90.2 rating only trails Khalil Mack (91.7) and J.J. Watt (92.4). While getting a lot of attention by his opponents’ blocking schemes, Lawrence has managed 4.5 sacks, but he’s also forced three fumbles. Lawrence has had more than 50 tackles in a season three times in his seven-year career, an impressive number for a defensive lineman. He’s currently on pace to get more than 60 tackles this season.