More remote work? Even worse traffic?
WHAT THE POST-PANDEMIC FUTURE HOLDS FOR CALIFORNIA TRANSPORTATION
California’s fearsome traffic evaporated when the state locked down this spring. Most commuters cleared off of its public transportation systems too, though many continued to rely on those services to reach essential jobs or run errands.
Now, with the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine, it seems the state may be only months away from a return of mass daily commuting.
But the ways people get around in the post-pandemic future could look very different from the commutes many abandoned in March, says Deborah Dagang, chief planning and programming officer for the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority.
Dagang charts the course for both public transit service and traffic management in Silicon Valley, a tricky job at a time when the world gets upended seemingly every few months and little about the future is certain.
Still, it gives her insight into the factors, from more widespread remote work to the potentially severe service cuts many public transit agencies are considering, that will determine what our recovery will look like on roads, buses and trains — not just in her county, but throughout the state.
This conversation has been edited for clarity and length.
It was quite a fall for California on the GDP scorecard as business lockdowns and restarts designed to limit the spread of the coronavirus took a toll
alifornia was coming off a banner 2019 in which its 3.4% GDP growth was topped by just four states — New Mexico at 5.2%; Washington at 4.6%; Colorado at 3.9%; and Utah at
3.8%. Then came the virus in late winter 2020.
Early in the pandemic, the state’s economy did fairly well on a national scale. California business output fell 0.5% in the first quarter, better than the nation’s 0.9% decline drop and ranking 21st among the states.
Then came the horrible spring during which much of the nation shut down. California’s economy contracted 9.3% in the second quarter, but that was middle-of-the-pack pain by GDP calculations. The na
tional decline was 9.5%, and California ranked 22nd from the top.
Yet, while much of the national economy reopened in the summer as the pandemic’s growth temporarily cooled, California took a more cautious path. GDP stats show the ongoing restrictions created a drag on key California industries.
California’s homebuying revival powered growth in real estate transactions 43% faster than the nation. Professional, scientific and technical services — key white-collar industries that
could skip virus restrictions with remote work — outpaced U.S. growth by 18%. And durable goods manufacturing — factories making items like electronics or transportation parts — ran 1% quicker than the nation.
Other California niches had subpar results.
Medical needs are a hotbutton issue, but statewide growth in spending on health care and social assistance statewide was 19% below the national rebound.
Yes, housing’s in high de
mand but building is still tricky in California. Construction growth was 17% below the national pace.
Logistics may be trendy but California transportation and warehousing grew 18% slower than U.S. norms. And wholesaling was 3% behind U.S. results.
Changing consumer priorities were a factor, too.
“Nondurable goods manufacturing” — items like clothing and food — grew 21% slower than the nation. Retail’s rebound was 7% cooler than elsewhere. Hospitality is hurting ev
erywhere, but the statewide growth in spending on tourism and eateries was 2% below the national pace.
And statewide government spending expanded 29% less than the U.S. pace. This sluggishness is likely tied to concerns about tight municipal budgets due to lower tax collections in a slow economy.
Considering how hard the pandemic has hit the state at year’s end, it’s a good bet that California’s economic underperformance will continue.