I was wrong about Oubre, now a godsend for Warriors
I’ll take an order of the crow, please.
Because I was wrong about Kelly Oubre.
I made the critical mistake of thinking that past performance would indicate future results. After all, they were indicating the results of the recent past.
But I underestimated Oubre. I underestimated the Warriors’ culture.
There is truly no one who cannot be saved by the roundball trinity of Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Steve Kerr.
As of late, the 25-year-old Oubre has been a godsend for a Warriors team that looks to be in the early stages of a nice end-of-the-first-half run. This is a squad that is fully actualizing, and Oubre’s impact in that development cannot go overstated.
“We’re getting there. We’re getting there for sure,” Oubre said.
Feel free to celebrate my bad takes, but to be fair, it was hard to see this kind of run coming and I was hardly alone in thinking that Oubre wasn’t a good fit with the Dubs.
Before the calendar flipped to February, Oubre was shooting 22.8% from 3 on five attempts a game. There were 82 players in the NBA that were shooting that many 3-point attempts per game, and Oubre had
the worst percentage of any of those players by two points.
But so far this month, he has been shooting 44% on 3-pointers on six attempts per game — a better percentage than James Harden or Steph Curry.
The biggest change is that Oubre has been the NBA’S leader in corner 3-point attempts per game in February and he’s knocking down 55% of those shots. That’s an effective field goal percentage of 82% on the most valuable shot in basketball. Not bad, not bad at all.
Now, Oubre has always been a streaky shooter, so there’s probably a number between his early-season corner-3 mark of 25% and the 54% he’s been shooting this month, but seeing as he’s improved his corner shooting in each of the last five seasons (starting at 15% at age 21), there’s reason to think that if he does cool off, he won’t return to his early-season form.
But making corner 3s is hardly the full story when it comes to Oubre’s improved play.
It’s the not-so-sexy things that have made the biggest difference.
Oubre’s defense has been stellar lately. Now, Oubre has always played with devil-may-care energy, but he’s reigned in his aggression. Playing with that governor makes him a tremendous asset. He’s smarter about when and where he gambles, and his length and athleticism always give him a chance to recover if he goes for a steal and fails. He’s not locked in on every possession, but that percentage, too, has increased dramatically in recent weeks.
When you hear nothing but praise of Oubre’s defense from Kerr and Green, it’s not lip service — it’s all deserved. He might not be a lock-down defender, but he’s unquestionably a positive force on a defensive unit that is convalescing into one of the best in the NBA.
And then there’s his newfound understanding of the offense.
It was to be expected that Oubre was going to stop defending his own players by not knowing where to stand in the Warriors’ offense, whether that be Curry in the corner or a big man in the dunker’s spot.
What has been unexpected is how quickly Oubre has picked up the intuition that makes the Warriors’ offense hum.
“I think we’re all just getting used to playing together and knowing what the strength and weaknesses are for a lot of us,” Oubre said. “It’s definitely great to continue to grow that bond.”
The positive moments that were becoming more and more frequent, but Friday night’s game against Charlotte showed just how far Oubre has come. With rookie Lamelo Ball guarding him for most of the first half, Oubre turned the first half of the game into a slasher film. He made six shots at the rim in the first quarter alone, each of them showing his newfound understanding of the Warriors’ admittedly challenging motion offense.
Oubre’s cutting ability proved so prolific in the first half that Charlotte had to start dedicating more defensive attention his way.
That’s exactly what the Warriors need on a team that far too often has two non-shooters on the floor and lacks a bonafide secondary scorer — Oubre’s cutting ability gives Curry a chance to see a single team in the future.
“Kelly’s just gotten so much better now in recent weeks with his recognition of what’s open, what’s available on the cuts,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. “(He’s) in a great groove.”
There’s a twisted irony in all of this, too.
A few weeks ago I wrote that the Warriors might need to trade Oubre in the near future — that things weren’t working and that I couldn’t foresee that changing much.
But now that Oubre is a positive-impact player helping the team, it’s probably more prudent to trade him.
Oubre’s trade value has clearly increased while his chance of re-signing with the Warriors has simultaneously decreased.
The Warriors only acquired Oubre because Klay Thompson was lost for the season. Golden State was keen to let the $17.2 million Andre Iguodala trade exception expire. Then Thompson got injured and the Warriors used it to acquire Oubre.
Oubre is a free agent after this season, and while they hold his Bird rights, meaning that they can offer him up to a 20% raise on his $14.3 million contract for this season.
Even if the Warriors want to take the luxury tax hit, they can’t be sure Oubre won’t get a better offer from a different team to be a starter. (Remember, with Thompson back, there’s no room for Oubre in the starting lineup unless Green starts at center — an unlikely proposition.)
It’s something to keep in mind in the coming days — the trade deadline is March 25 — but in the meantime, you can take solace in the fact that I got this one wrong.
But we’re all getting to see some truly enjoyable basketball, so I’ll gladly take this L.