Many Trump backers don’t want him to run in 2024

Donald Trump’s loyal base remains intensely loyal. A straw poll of participants in the 2021 Conservative Political Action Conference found 97% approve of the job Trump did as president, including 87% who approve strongly, while 95% said the Republican Party must continue to pursue Trump’s issues and agenda. “He’s literally the most popular figure we have ever had in the conservative movement,” said pollster Jim McLaughlin, who conducted the survey.

So it was stunning that when Trump’s most fervent supporters were asked whom they would support in 2024 if Trump were running, only 55% said they would vote for the former president. That’s a majority, but just barely. Fully 45% of CPAC participants — who approve of Trump and believe in his agenda — want someone else to carry the banner of Trumpism into the next election.

That is not a repudiation of the former president. It’s a grudging recognition by many of his most ardent loyalists that, despite their adoration of him, there might be better candidates to advance his ideas, which remain popular with the American people even if Trump does not.

The 2020 election was a repudiation not of Trumpism, but of Trump. Pre-election polls showed that a 49% plurality of Americans agreed with Trump over then-candidate Joe Biden on the issues. Trump didn’t lose because voters wanted higher taxes, more regulation or open borders. He lost because he drove away millions of voters who approved of his policies, but did not approve of him. They liked his economic stewardship, but didn’t like the chaos of the past four years — especially during a pandemic.

Politico reports that numerous pollsters brought to brief then-Vice President Mike Pence on the election results “made clear that while there was substantial support for Trump’s policies, there was widespread exhaustion with the president.” That was confirmed by a detailed autopsy report from Trump’s own pollster Tony Fabrizio, which found that the president lost “largely due to a massive swing” among independents and erosion among key groups that had supported him four years earlier.

In the five key swing states that flipped from Trump to Biden — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Trump suffered a net shift of 19 points among independents compared with 2016. He also suffered net shifts of 12 points among White men, 14 points among college-educated Whites, 6 points among workingclass Whites and 8 points among seniors — a group that propelled him into the White House four years earlier. Biden also held a double-digit advantage over Trump in flipped states on the question of who was more “honest and trustworthy,” with the former president underwater on the question by a massive 18 points.

Trump’s behavior and rhetoric before the election drove away persuadable voters, and his behavior and rhetoric after the election only served to confirm their choice. To retake the White House in 2024, Republicans need to win those voters back. And a significant portion of Trump’s most loyal supporters at CPAC seems to think that another standard-bearer would be best positioned to do that four years from now.

So who might pick up Trump’s mantle? The two breakout stars of CPAC were pro-Trump governors Ron DeSantis of Florida and Kristi Noem of South Dakota, both of whom have won plaudits on the right for keeping their states open. In an open field, there will be no shortage of contenders. The only thing that seems certain at this point is that it is highly unlikely an anti-Trump Republican will win the GOP nomination.

The nomination is Trump’s for the taking. The only question is whether he chooses to be king or kingmaker. Trump might or might not leave the presidential stage, but Trumpism is here to stay.