Gov. Newsom’s COVID strategy risks resurgence
As California relaxes restrictions designed to curb the spread of COVID-19 and today greatly increases the number of people eligible for vaccinations, disturbing data indicate Gov. Gavin Newsom should slow the respective trains.
We all want life to get back to normal, whatever that means, as soon as possible. But we shouldn’t unnecessarily endanger lives, or the state’s recovery, in our rush for freedom from restrictions.
We’re seeing a global resurgence of the virus in Europe and South America. In the United States, the rapid decline in daily cases ended in late February and levels are now at those seen during last summer’s surge — and rising.
President Joe Biden has pleaded with governors who recklessly lifted masking mandates to restore them. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, this week warned of “impending doom” from a potential fourth surge of the pandemic.
“Hold on a little longer,” she said. There is “so much reason for hope,” she added. “But right now, I’m scared.”
And while California case counts are low, the virus is still killing 100 people a day. And there’s no reason to believe we’ll be immune from the climbing case numbers elsewhere.
“There’s nothing to suggest that won’t happen here,” said John Swartzberg, clinical professor emeritus of infectious diseases and vaccinology at UC Berkeley. “I’m very concerned we’re probably at one of the most pivotal points in the pandemic.”
Which brings us to the rapid relaxing of Newsom’s restrictions. While the standards he laid out months ago might have seemed reasonable, Swartzberg said, they don’t meet the moment we’re in now.
In addition to wearing masks and social distancing, we should curb the reopening of the sorts of venues where the coronavirus spreads: indoor dining, bars, gyms and concert venues, for example.
If we reopen too quickly,” Swartzberg said, “we’re setting ourselves up for failure and that’s just going to delay what we see for summer and fall.”
We’re in a race against the virus. We need to slow its spread — and the emergence of new variants that come with that spread — while we rush to vaccinate as many people as possible.
Starting today, an additional 7.6 million Californians, ages 50-64, will be eligible to start booking COVID-19 vaccine appointments. And on April 15, all Californians 16 and older will become eligible for a vaccine.
But it’s not at all clear that we’re ready for the moment. The daily number of vaccine doses administered across the state has leveled off. Darrel Ng, a spokesperson for the California Department of Public Health, said Monday that based on the state’s anticipated supply, it will take weeks if not months to vaccinate all eligible Californians.
In other words, more chaos as a larger number of Californians rush to their phones and computers in a scramble to find vaccines for which supply is short and per-capita distribution is badly uneven among counties across the state.
There’s also mounting concern that the rapid expansion of vaccine eligibility will crowd out those who need it the most. Groups working to vaccinate residents in Black and Latino communities in the Bay Area already lack the necessary supply to meet the demand.
It doesn’t have to be like this. A more measured expansion of vaccine eligibility could get us to the same place in the same amount of time without the frenzied competition and frustration. Similarly, a more measured approach to reopening would better protect Californians from the spread of the virus.
We’re at a critical juncture. We, and our governor, need to make smart decisions.