Jon Wilner makes his picks for today’s Final Four games
UCLA faces historic odds this weekend as it attempts to topple Gonzaga in the Final Four. Becoming the first No. 11 seed to advance to the title game? Well, yes. But not that.
Preventing Gonzaga from becoming the first undefeated champion since Indiana in 1976? Sure, but not that, either.
In this case, we’re referring to the literal odds. The Bruins are believed to be the biggest underdog in the history of the national semifinals. They’re getting 14 points against the powerhouse Zags.
The only comparable Final Four point spread came in the 1996 national championship, when Kentucky was a 14-point favorite over Syracuse. (The Wildcats won the game but did not cover.)
The massive line established for today’s affair in Indianapolis seems justified:
• The Zags have won all their tournament games by double digits.
• They just blasted a USC team that beat the Bruins twice.
• Three starters (point guard Jalen Suggs, wing Corey Kispert and big man Drew Timme) are destined for the first round of the NBA draft.
Meanwhile, the Bruins have been without their top scorer, Chris Smith, since January and without their top interior defender, Jalen Hill, since February. They were the third-to-last team
voted into the field and narrowly escaped against Michigan State (overtime), Alabama (overtime) and Michigan (two points).
They are talented, sure, but moxie and grit have been their rocket fuel.
The Zags are next-level good. Also, the line’s justified because it hasn’t budged. There has been no cash surge on UCLA. In fact, some online sites are offering 14.5 points.
Sure, the line could fall just prior to tipoff, when the sharps (the professional gamblers) swoop in. Then again, the smart money could bet Gonzaga up to 15,
at least. Our picks
NO. 2 HOUSTON (PLUS-5) VS. NO. 1 BAYLOR >> The top seed has one of the best perimeter units to grace the Final Four stage in many years with Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell and MaCio Teague. They’re tough, they defend with an edge, and they are capable of combining for 50+ points. The Bears have won each tournament game by at least nine points and covered the spread in both the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. We fully expect that trend to continue. This won’t be close with two minutes left. Pick: Baylor.
NO. 11 UCLA (PLUS-14) VS. NO. 1 GONZAGA >> First things first: The USC situation. Yes, the Trojans swept UCLA and have more size and more talent, especially up front. BUT: The Bruins possess considerably more savvy; they’re tougher physically and mentally; and they have a better coach. All in all, they are built for the grind of the NCAAs ... UCLA’s chief problem today is the absence of a quality option for defending Timme, who chewed up the Trojans in the Elite Eight. We wonder if coach Mick Cronin will limit the help defense, let Timme score 25plus points and focus instead on shutting down Suggs, Kispert and Joel Ayayi on the perimeter ... UCLA must control the pace, which means 1) making shots (Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez) and 2) avoiding the turnovers that could lead to easy baskets for the Zags ... How will the Zags handle being two steps from history? How will they respond if UCLA is within a basket or two down the stretch? Can the Bruins win? Of course they can win. We don’t expect it, but we wouldn’t be surprised. And the 14 points? Yes, please. Pick: UCLA.