Infrastructure bill made it more likely GOP will take back Congress

With passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill last week, Senate Republicans have scored a policy and political trifecta: They have saved the filibuster, complicated Democrats’ plans to pass their partisan $3.5 trillion non-infrastructure spending package and made it more likely that the GOP will take back the House and Senate next year.

First, Republicans have proved that the Senate can still function in a bipartisan way. That means Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, DN.Y., can no longer accuse Senate Republicans of “just opposing everything and trying to thwart Biden.”

The GOP has shown that when Democrats truly seek common ground, rather than trying to ram through their agenda over the objections of the minority, enough Republicans will meet them halfway to get things done. And they have delivered for Sens. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia — the two lonely Democrats standing in the way of filibuster elimination — and vindicated their effort to reach across the aisle.

As a result, Republicans have removed any arguments for getting rid of the filibuster — and thus any chance of Democrats’ passing the most radical elements of their agenda. They have done so at a cost of just $415 billion in new discretionary spending and without any tax increases. That is money well spent to save the filibuster and stop Democrats from packing the Senate by adding D.C. as a state, “reforming” the Supreme Court or ramming through a federal takeover of U.S. elections.

Second, Republicans have complicated Democrats’ plans to enact everything they gave up in the bipartisan infrastructure compromise by passing a massive $3.5 trillion spending bill using the budget reconciliation process, which requires no Republican votes. No sooner had the bipartisan infrastructure plan passed than Manchin issued a statement declaring, “I have serious concerns about the grave consequences facing West Virginians and every American family if Congress decides to spend another $3.5 trillion.” Sinema has similarly said, “I do not support a bill that costs $3.5 trillion.”\

Without Manchin’s and Sinema’s votes, Democrats can get nothing through Congress. So, Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., will have to negotiate with Manchin, Sinema and House moderates to craft a slimmed-down package that can meet their approval.

Moreover, they will have to pass all that spending without infrastructure as sugarcoating. President Biden’s original plan was to use “infrastructure” as cover to pass trillions of dollars of non-infrastructure spending — just as he used his “COVID-19 relief” bill to pass all sorts of spending unrelated to the pandemic.

But now Senate Republicans have taken all the popular hard infrastructure projects and passed them in a separate bipartisan bill that does not raise taxes. What does that leave? Trillions in left-wing social welfare spending and massive tax hikes to pay for it. Democrats must now pass all those taxes and all that spending on their own — without roads, bridges and broadband as cover.

Because they need only Democratic votes, they will eventually pass something. But then they will have to face the voters in November 2022 — and Republicans will hang that bill like an albatross around the necks of House and Senate Democrats in close races. Republicans seem to understand what Democrats do not: The American people did not vote for socialism in the 2020 election. They gave Democrats an incredibly narrow majority in the House and a 50-50 Senate.

The message could not have been clearer: Reach across the aisle and compromise. Republicans will now be able to argue that they met the mandate the voters gave them — while Democrats violated it by ramming through a massive liberal spending bill demanded by the Bernie Sanders-Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wing of the party on a party-line vote. Moderate Democrats will have to explain that to voters. It won’t be easy.

When political parties misread their mandate, they tend to get punished at the polls.

So why are Democrats pushing forward and exceeding their mandate? Because they also know that since 1946 the president’s party has lost, on average, 27 House seats in midterm elections. In 2022, it will take a net gain of just four House seats and one seat in the Senate to put the GOP in control of both chambers. And if the GOP takes over even one chamber next year, the party-line budget reconciliation path will be closed; bipartisan majorities will be required.

So the Democrats’ dominant left wing sees the window to pass its radical agenda closing. Those on the left want to enact as much of that agenda as they can while they still hold power. Because while most Americans will see the bipartisan infrastructure compromise as a model for governing, the left sees it as an existential threat to their plans to remake America.