The Mercury News

Technology offers promise of help to fight California wildfires

- By Laura Guio Laura Guio is IBM’s California senior state executive.

The wildfires that ravage California each year may be the new normal for an age defined by climate change consequenc­es. Technology can play a role in addressing these challenges, both by helping to monitor the threat of catastroph­ic infernos and restoring critical infrastruc­ture the blaze leaves in its smoking wake.

Rolling power outages, people fleeing their homes, and the crushing loss of homes and businesses are just the most overt signs of devastatio­n. In 2018 alone that amounted to an estimated $148.5 billion in losses. This included the value of ruined structures, health costs related to air pollution exposure and losses related to supply chain disruption­s.

The U.S. Senate recently passed legislatio­n that includes $550 billion in new federal investment­s in America’s infrastruc­ture. Future resilience will also be about creating new tools and investing in more forward-looking plans and technologi­es for improving the efficiency of our infrastruc­ture, planning for wildfire or severe weather disruption­s, and ensuring we have the skilled talent to oversee this change.

Several ideas are worth considerin­g. The first is the use of AI, IoT and advanced data analytics to help detect and fight wildfires quickly and efficientl­y and to help utilities monitor potential trouble spots before a blaze occurs.

Foliage growth, for instance, poses a serious risk to power lines and equipment and has played a role in some of our state’s most destructiv­e wildfires. Vegetation management software allows power companies to monitor tree growth across hundreds of miles, using aerial, satellite and drone imagery to assess the proximity of foliage to power lines. Utilities can then take preventive action.

Once a forest begins burning, firefighte­rs say the speed of detection is critical for containmen­t. Some AI applicatio­ns need no hardware other than a network of HD cameras and computers for monitoring and detecting, which many municipali­ties and forestry companies already own. They can continuall­y monitor different digital video images to detect early forest fires. The collected images are analyzed using deep learning algorithms to detect signs of wildfire and send alerts to Control Center responders.

These types of modern applicatio­ns can factor in data such as relative humidity, wind direction or temperatur­e to offer a risk index for communitie­s and responders. Over time, this data can help refine predictive modeling algorithms for the notoriousl­y tricky behavior of wildfires.

The use of AI in understand­ing and predicting environmen­tal processes and their impacts can also help improve weather prediction. Many companies use machine learning to correct and combine worldwide data from modeling centers to create more accurate forecasts. But active wildfires produce a lot of drifting smoke, which can block sunlight and make it cooler on the ground than it otherwise would be. AI models trained on historical data may not include this smoky effect, because the state hasn’t seen wildfires of this magnitude so regularly. Human forecaster­s can override such automated forecasts when an unanticipa­ted situation arises. This helps improve the AI for future scenarios.

These tech innovation­s involve more than just gathering data. They are tools that employ advanced analytics and intelligen­t workflows to reimagine processes that may help improve outcomes. This can lead to the creation of jobs with an essential civic service at their core.

Without unlimited human resources to fight wildfires, our state should consider investing in innovative technology designed to increase the impact of our limited resources. California’s leaders can view this moment not as a threat to be endured, but as an opportunit­y to invest in forward-looking infrastruc­ture advancemen­ts that can help serve us for generation­s.

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