Snell's modest deal shows market changes

The MLB market crashed for Blake Snell, just as it did for Matt Chapman, and for Cody Bellinger before him.

Snell's two-year, $62 million agreement with the San Francisco Giants earlier this week marked another modest payday for a megadeal-seeking star during an excruciatingly slow-moving offseason.

Chapman signed a threeyear, $54 million deal with the Giants. Bellinger got three years and $80 million to re-sign with the Chicago Cubs. JD Martinez got $12 million to sign with the New York Mets on Saturday. Jordan Montgomery remains unsigned with Opening Day just more than a week away.

But Snell, fresh off of his second Cy Young Award and only now entering his age-31 season, was the most surprising.

That the left-hander couldn't cash in, in a league desperate for pitching, reaffirmed what Chapman and Bellinger's below-market deals already suggested. Owners are no longer willing to spend top dollar on players they consider a tier below the very best.

That Snell, Bellinger, Chapman, Montgomery and Martinez are each represented by Scott Boras, an agent notorious for chasing down the biggest deals, makes the 2023-24 offseason even more intriguing.

Snell would fit nicely toward the top of any rotation, with his filthy fourpitch mix — highlighted by a put-away curveball — helping him to an MLBbest 2.25 ERA and a 31.5% strikeout rate for the San Diego Padres last season.

But while Snell is a No. 1 starter, it's fair to question whether he's an ace. His 180 innings last season ranked only 24th among MLB pitchers, while his 5.63 innings per start were nearly a full inning behind new teammate Logan Webb's 6.55.

In the four seasons between his Cy Young Awards, Snell pitched to a 3.85 ERA and failed to reach 130 innings in any of them. Gerrit Cole, he is not.

Cole is an interesting comp, considering the Yankees right-hander won last season's American League Cy Young Award opposite Snell's National League honor. Cole, a proven workhorse who led the AL with 209 innings in 2023, signed a nine-year, $324 million deal with the Yankees in 2019, when he was 29. He is also represented by Boras.

The Yankees showed interest in Snell this offseason even before learning an elbow issue could cost Cole the first two months of 2024. They reportedly offered Snell a $150 million contract last month but pulled it once he declined and pivoted to Marcus Stroman.

A rotation featuring Cole, Snell, Stroman, Carlos

Rodón and Nestor Cortes — each of whom boasts at least one All-Star selection — looks great on paper, but with the Yankees now in the 110% luxury tax bracket, adding another $30 million+ salary proved to be too costly.

Boras' other clients this offseason also came with warts. Bellinger, the 2019 NL MVP with Dodgers, slumped so badly from 2020-22 that Los Angeles released him before the 2023 season. He batted .307 with 26 home runs on a one-year prove-it with the Cubs but came nowhere close to hitting his reported $200 million-plus asking price this offseason.

Chapman, a four-time Gold Glove-winning third baseman, hit 17 home runs with 54 RBIs last season with the Toronto Blue Jays, representing the lowest totals in his five full MLB seasons.

Martinez, a 2023 AllStar, is 36 years old. And Montgomery, who rode his increased slide usage to a career-best 3.20 ERA over a career-high 188 2/3 innings in 2023, is 38-34 with a 3.68 ERA over his seven MLB seasons.

Boras long excelled at finding an owner to meet his ambitious asking prices, even if it meant waiting out the market. Bryce Harper famously didn't reach his 13-year, $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies until Feb. 28, 2019.

But in today's era of analytics, MLB front offices have their own metrics to determine a player's value and rarely stretch past it.

That's not to say superstars don't still get paid. Hitting-and-pitching sensation Shohei Ohtani signed a record-setting 10-year, $700 million contract this offseason with the Los Angeles Dodgers, albeit with heavily deferred money.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a 25-year-old Japanese pitcher with a devastating repertoire, signed a similarly historic 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers — and had plenty of other deep-pocketed suitors as well.

Aaron Judge got nine years and $360 million last offseason from the Yankees. His generational new teammate, Juan Soto, who is represented by Boras, could approach $500 million on the open market next offseason.

Owners spent a record $3.9 billion last offseason, compared to $2.9 billion in this one. The landscape could change again, with members of the MLB Players Association reportedly now pushing for deputy executive director Bruce Meyer to be replaced after this offseason's disappointments.

Snell, Bellinger and Chapman's contracts each include opt-outs allowing them to become free agents again next offseason.

It's hard to imagine, however, Snell's stock being any higher than it was this time around.