Daunting road to repeat for Villanova
No. 1 seed Wildcats face bumpy path in East Region
RADNOR » The bracket has been released and Villanova has been tabbed as the No. 1 overall seed for the NCAA Tournament, which wasn’t a great surprise.
The Wildcats locked that up with a 74-60 victory over Creighton in the Big East Tournament championship game, which made them the only team being considered for the top spot to win its conference tournament title.
Because of that seed, the reigning national champions are the favorite to win the title in the eyes of the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Yet it’s not a given. The Wildcats are the first defending champion to receive the overall No. 1 seed since Florida in 2007, and the Gators went on to repeat that year to become only the second team to go back-toback since the field was expanded
Villanova is the first defending champion to receive the overall No. 1 seed since Florida in 2007, and the Gators went on to repeat that year to become only the second team to go back-to-back since the field was expanded to 64 in 1985. Duke, in 1991 and 1992, is the only other team in the modern era to repeat.
to 64 in 1985. Duke is the only other team in the modern era to repeat. The Blue Devils did so in 1991 and 1992.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas see things a little differently. They have Duke, the No. 2 seed in the same East Region as Villanova, as the favorite at 5-1, followed by North Carolina (6-1), Kentucky, Villanova and Kansas all at 8-1.
As tough as it is to repeat, making it to consecutive Final Fours is just as difficult. Only six reigning champions have made it to back-to-back Final Fours, the last being Florida in 2007. Butler made it to the Final Four in 2010 and 2011, but lost in the final both times.
The only other reigning champs to make it back to the Final Four other than Duke and Florida were UNLV (1990 & ’91), Arkansas (1994 & ’95), Kentucky (1996 & ’97) and Michigan State (2000 & ’01). Arkansas and Kentucky are the only other teams to make it to back-to-back finals. UNLV and Michigan State both lost in the finals.
Six reigning champs failed to make the tournament the year after the title, so the odds are stacked against the Wildcats. Then again, no one thought Villanova could win it last year. So there’s that.
As far as the East Region is concerned, the NCAA Tournament selection committee did not make it easy for the Wildcats to make another long run.
Assuming they take care of either Mount St. Mary’s or New Orleans (remember, no No. 1 seed has ever lost to a 16), the Wildcats (31-3) will get either eighth-seeded Wisconsin and ninth-seeded Virginia Tech.
The Badgers (25-9) were ranked as high as seventh five weeks ago, but have fallen on some hard times recently. Wisconsin is 3-4 in its last seven games and that includes a loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament championship game. However, two of the Badgers’ last three wins were over teams that made the NCAA Tournament (Minnesota and Northwestern). And Wisconsin has the size that can give the vertically challenged Wildcats some problems.
Virginia Tech (22-10) was ranked for a week in January and has wins over Duke, Virginia and Miami. However, the Hokies enter the tournament with two losses in their last three games.
If the Wildcats get through the first weekend, a matchup with fourth-seeded Florida (24-8) or fifth-seeded Virginia (22-10) could loom in the regional semifinals, barring an upset or two. The Gators have been ranked high in all the metrics (KenPom.com, RPI) and are very good defensively. Virginia leads the NCAA in scoring defense. The Wildcats needed a tipin at the buzzer to beat the Cavaliers at the Wells Fargo Center.
Baylor (25-7) is the No. 3 seed. The Bears finished second in the Big 12 behind Kansas during the regular season. However, like Wisconsin, Baylor has lost four of its last seven games.
Few teams are playing better than second-seeded Duke (27-8). The Blue Devils became the first team in ACC history to win four games in four days to claim the conference tournament title. To do that, Duke had to beat No. 10 Louisville, No. 6 North Carolina and No. 22 Notre Dame on consecutive nights.
And don’t sleep on sixthseeded SMU (30-4). The Mustangs are riding a 16-game winning streak.
So it’s not going to be a walk in the park for the Wildcats, but that’s what makes March so much fun and so maddening.