Learning from lessons of the past
Historical comparisons to current events are always a bit strained because each epoch is unique. Drawing exact parallels leads to erroneous conclusions. However, loose comparisons can help conceptualize today’s events and help avoid past mistakes.
The most troubling aspect regarding international affairs today is the sheer volume of discord. One can’t help but see parallels to the 1930s, which is extremely disconcerting because World War II followed that troubled decade. Discerning commonalities between the two periods in no way implies world war is unavoidable, but highlighting the similarities could prove a helpful wake up call.
A confluence of events in the 1930s helped lead to war. First and foremost was the Great Depression. Global depression led to distrust in the global economic order, which then weakened support for global integration and trade. Tariffs went up and trade volumes shrank. At the same time, the U.S. turned inward, both economically and politically. As fascism and communism swept through Europe, fomenting crises, a large “America first” movement felt the U.S. should stay out of European affairs, especially the war once it began. Meanwhile, Japanese belligerence and conquest upended Asia.
Today a new “America first” movement is upon us, as many Americans have soured on free trade and global integration. Growing income inequality and stagnant median wages, rather than economic recession, have been the catalyst this time. Donald Trump rode this era’s “America first” sentiments all the way to the White House, promising to abandon America’s leadership role in international affairs for the first time since World War II. He has threatened to dismantle the NAFTA accord with Canada and Mexico, and has undermined the World Trade Organization’s ability to adjudicate trade disputes by blocking the reappointment of judges to its appellate body. He intimates that the U.S. may pull out of the WTO and has been clear that his administration favors bilateral trade agreements over multi-lateral ones since he views trade as a zerosum game. Canada’s trade minister recently called the Trump administration “the most protectionist government since the 1930s.” Without U.S. support for the liberal economic order, economic growth and stability will fade.
In Europe, some believe foreign, supranatural forces threaten their national sovereignty by imposing further integration. Subsequently, support for the European Union has weakened, evidenced by the U.K.’s successful Brexit vote to leave the union and the relatively strong support of populist/nationalist parties in recent European national elections. While the EU is not on the brink of collapse, centrifugal forces have certainly gained strength at the expense of centripetal ones. Meanwhile, Russian mischief in Ukraine and Georgia, and alleged interference in the U.S. presidential and European elections have seemingly resurrected the cold war.
Asia is no less serene. China has become more belligerent in the South China Sea, while North Korean missile launches have made nuclear war a real possibility for the first time since the Cuban missile crisis. North Korea’s nuclear weapons program may unleash a regional nuclear arms race, as South Korea and Japan may seek their own nuclear arsenals to deter North Korean aggression.
The Middle East’s implosion since the 2011 Arab spring has been so pervasive that it is almost unnecessary to expound further. The Syrian civil war has raged for years, and has subsequently involved the U.S., Russia, and several regional powers such as Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the Saudi — Iranian proxy battle for regional hegemony reverberates throughout the area, most recently in Qatar and Lebanon. Also, U.S. threats to pull out of the multinational nuclear accord with Iran could spur a nuclear arms race between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Finally, the U.S. decision to move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem risks pulling another loose string in the fraying Middle East tapestry.
International events seem to be spiraling out of control, with faint echoes of the 1930s heard in the distance. We should take heed; amid global chaos, astute diplomacy and statecraft are needed now more than ever.