Baseball is all about numbers, so is Hall
The only WAR Joe DiMaggio knew about was the one raging overseas as he entered the prime of his career.
World War II cost DiMaggio three years in the majors, though his Army service mainly consisted of playing baseball in various exhibitions. It also cost him a higher career Wins Above Replacement, the stat baseball’s ever expanding analytic wing likes to trot out whenever there is a discussion of the greatest players of all time.
It took three tries for DiMaggio to get elected to the Hall of Fame, though it wasn’t because there weren’t any new age stats to measure his career by. Voters in the 1950s were a discerning lot when it came to crowning baseball royalty.
They’re not quite as discerning these days, as shown by Wednesday’s announcement of the 2018 Hall of Fame class. Four players were elected, bringing the total for the last five years to 16.
That’s a lot of new Hall of Famers, considering that in 2013 not one player was elected by writers. And it may be reflective of a new voting pattern that celebrates the kind of statistics that have transformed the modern game.
Chipper Jones and Jim Thome would have been automatic picks in any era. Jones played 19 years, hit more than .300 from each side of the plate, and had a career on-base average of .401. He averaged 30 home runs and 105 RBIs for every 162 games played, though he didn’t get to the magical 3,000 hit mark.
Thome, meanwhile, hit 612 home runs, and anyone over 600 without a link to steroids is pretty much a lock.
Statistics are used to judge because statistics mean everything in baseball. It’s a game of numbers, as any kid who grew up memorizing the batting averages of his favorites will tell you.
But it doesn’t have to be ruled by NEW YORK » Vladimir Guerrero is going into the Hall of Fame with a halo over his head.
Guerrero will become the first player to wear an Angels hat on his bronze Hall plaque, a surprise to many because he spent more time with the Montreal Expos.
Guerrero made the announcement Thursday, a day after he was elected to the Hall by an overwhelming margin. “I toiled over this for a long time, because the Canadian people mean a whole lot to me,” he said through a translator.
He said he chose the Angels because “what it represented and what it represents now and all the winning that happened when I was with the Angels.” Guerrero went to the postseason five times with the Angels, but never made it that far with Montreal.
numbers. And they’re beginning to dominate the Hall of Fame debate just like they’ve changed the way the game is played on the field.
Consider the case of Edgar Martinez, who writers for years treated as a marginal candidate for induction. That he was a DH most of his career worked against him, as did his relative lack of home runs.
But Martinez surged in voting the last two years, propelled by supporters who used WAR and OPS to make his case. He received 70.4 percent of the latest vote, falling just 20 votes shy of joining Jones, Thome, Vladimir Guerrero and Trevor Hoffman in this year’s class.
“We are trending up,” Martinez tweeted. “Next year may be the year.”
Mike Mussina’s climb to 63.5 percent of the vote — 75 percent is needed to get in — has followed a similar trajectory in five years on the ballot.
Again, there’s nothing wrong with using numbers to evaluate careers. Baseball voters have been doing it since the time when batting average, RBIs and home runs were the only standards for hitters, and ERA and wins were what pitchers got rewarded for when they signed contracts for the next year.
But is Martinez being tied for 32nd in history for OPS enough to get him in the Hall? Martinez may indeed make it on his 10th and final year of eligibility. There’s a good chance both Martinez and Mussina pick up votes.
There’s also a good chance Barry Bonds and the rest of the suspected steroid users on the ballot won’t make it. And that might be the best news to come from this year’s ballot of veteran baseball writers.
Bonds and Roger Clemens edged up a bit this year, but Joe Morgan’s letter warning against their election may have been the crowning blow to their chances. Both have only four years left to get to 75 percent, and the latest results (Clemens 57.3, Bonds 56.4) indicate it may be a target they can’t reach.
I didn’t vote for either on my BBWAA ballot, though Morgan’s letter wasn’t a factor. Having covered the steroid era, my personal opinion has always been that their inclusion would be a stain on the Hall of Fame.
I did vote for both Martinez and Mussina, though, because in the end you can’t ignore that baseball is still very much a numbers game. TOP NEWCOMERS Mariano Rivera is viewed by many as the game’s greatest closer, and his dominance may transcend whatever misgivings voters have about the value of low-workload relievers. Trevor Hoffman received 80 percent of the vote this year. Goose Gossage got 86 percent when he was elected, and Bruce Sutter got 77. Rivera has a chance to do what none of those three relievers did — enter the Hall on the first ballot. Roy Halladay will likely have plenty of support after winning two Cy Young Awards and finishing his career with 67 complete games — a number that already feels staggering. Last season’s major league leaders in complete games were Corey Kluber and Ervin Santana with five each. Halladay had five or more in seven different seasons. EDGAR’S HOPES Edgar Martinez will be on the BBWAA ballot for the 10th time — and that’s the most a player is allowed. He’ll either be voted in or have to start waiting for a veterans panel to take up his case. He received 70 percent of the vote this year, up from 59 in 2017 and 43 the previous year. There’s still opposition to Martinez, who spent much of his career as a designated hitter, but he doesn’t need much more of a gain to reach the threshold of 75 percent for induction.
Todd Helton joins next year’s ballot, giving voters a chance to consider another slugger who put up big numbers in hitterfriendly Colorado. Larry Walker received just 34 percent of the vote this year, although that was up from 22 percent in 2017. Helton had a career OPS of .953, but the favorable environment at Coors Field may invite skepticism from the voters. BONDS AND CLEMENS Another year came and went, and Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens aren’t much closer to Cooperstown. Their Hall chances seemed to be growing when they crossed 50 percent for the first time in 2017, but their progress slowed considerably this year, with Clemens finishing at 57 percent and Bonds at 56. OTHERS TO WATCH Andy Pettitte joins the 2019 ballot, but the terrain has been difficult for starting pitchers, with Mike Mussina (64 percent this year) and Curt Schilling (51 percent) still needing to make up ground. Pettitte may be overshadowed by Halladay’s arrival on the ballot. Lance Berkman, another of next year’s newcomers, had a .943 career OPS. That’s similar to Helton’s — and without the benefit of Colorado home games — but Berkman had over 1,600 fewer plate appearances.