IF ONLY PLUS COUNTS, MAXIMIZE THE ODDS

Albert Einstein said, “If A is success in life, I should say the formula is A equals X plus Y plus Z, X being work and Y being play. Z is keeping your mouth shut.”

He wasn’t keeping his mouth shut! He was being interviewed for a piece in The New York Times Magazine.

When you are playing social bridge or in a teams event, you should try to maximize your chances of making the contract. Only when in a duplicate pairs event should you take a favorable bet to try for overtricks.

Today’s deal is an example. How should South play in five diamonds after West leads the heart jack?

To be honest, most pairs would reach three no-trump, especially in a duplicate, and could lose the first five tricks. However, using journalistic license, here is an auction to the best contract. (Perhaps you think five diamonds by North is best, to protect you from an immediate club lead through the ace-queen. But with this layout, it works badly. East takes his top spades, then exits in a red suit and awaits the setting trick in clubs.)

If just making five diamonds is what matters, declarer should draw trumps, cash his other heart winners and lead a spade. Here, he gets lucky. East wins two tricks in the suit, but is then endplayed. If he leads a club, it is away from the king. Or, if he plays a major, South sluffs a club from his hand and ruffs on the board.

In a pairs event, though, if the club finesse is working, declarer can win at least 12 tricks, and the chance that East has all three black-suit honors is very low. So, South should take that finesse.