When needed most, Arrieta didn’t provide enough for rotation
PHILADELPHIA » For 97 of the most dazzling pitches that would be thrown all season in Citizens Bank Park, Jake Arrieta in April was himself again. Twice having thrown no-hitters in his career and recently having been signed by the Phillies for a guaranteed $75 million, the 32-year-old righthander would throw seven innings of a 7-0 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates, allowing one hit, an infield bouncer toward short. He’d never been better, not in the no-hitters, not in the 2016 World Series, not in 2015 when he won the Cy Young Award. Never?
“Yeah, it was good,” he said at the time. “Other than being able to locate the changeup a little better, it was about as good as I’ve been.”
That was the Phillies’ plan, their reason for paying the right-hander $30,000,000 for the season. They wanted an AllStar-level competitor able to drop hitters and jaws every fifth day for a team with a chance to contend. What they were not as interested in was overpaying for the pitcher who went 14-10 a year earlier and was shooed by the Cubs into free agency.
The Phillies paid for the 22-6, 2015 Jake Arrieta. They paid for the Jake Arrieta who won two World Series games in 2016. That was the deal, no matter how Gabe Kapler would spin it later, taking results and twisting them until it fit a good story.
In a 9-4 loss to the New York Mets Monday, Arrieta didn’t make it into the sixth inning. At a critical moment for the Phils, who aren’t likely to have many more critical moments, Arrieta surrendered nine hits and four runs. Blessed with a no-decision, Arrieta finished the night with his 10-9 record and a 3.77 ERA. But in the last eight games his last eight starts, the Phillies had lost six. He’d been credited with one win since July. And for the one veteran in a young, five-man rotation, he’d been anything but a reliable stopper.
So, here’s Kapler, afterward, word for word: “I looked at his numbers prior to the game and he’s pretty much the same soldier that he was in Chicago last year. If you look at it from a strikeout perspective, especially after getting some whiffs tonight, pretty close to where he was last year. If you look at it from a walks perspective, about where he was last year with the Chicago Cubs. He’s given up fewer home runs this year than he did last year. He’s kept us in baseball games. He’s taken the ball. He’s made his starts. He’s given us a lot of innings. He’s been a horse for us.”
Arrieta’s cutter in that Pittsburgh game didn’t have as much spin as that mouthful. Yet somehow, Kapler rewrote the Arrieta conditions to make it an achievement for him to match the very production that inspired the Cubs to pass on re-signing one of their rare World Series giants.
That wasn’t the deal. Arrieta knows that. So that was him after the game, standing in the middle of the room, chest out, waiting for the press, ready to answer questions, to answer for himself, to answer for the way the Phillies have failed in August and September, to answer for it all. In that instance he was, yes, a horse.
“Too many hittable pitches in the strike zone really is what it boiled down to,” Arrieta said. “Those guys, give them credit. They put some nice swings together. But I just wasn’t good enough outside the strike zone when I should have been.”
Too many hittable pitches. Even in the analytics age, baseball can be that simple. If the Phillies fail to reach the playoffs in a rare gift of a season where the N.L. East race had broken perfectly for them, there will be dozens of reasons. But Arrieta flattening again as he nears his mid-30s, was something they did not need. He will earn another $25 next season, and $20 million the year after that. The Phillies will have to more option years that they will not exercise. But they owe Arrieta another $45 million. And for that price, they need more.
Next year?
“I would like for this season to have been a little bit better,” he said. “But it is what it is. You take the ball every fifth day and give your best. The results are what they are.”
The talent is still there. That Pittsburgh game showed that. So did the outing when he held the Nationals to two hits in six innings. Arrieta made six starts in June and the Phils won every game. And he does pitch for a team that has scored the fourth fewest runs in the National League.
But the Phillies needed Arrieta to be a Cy Young candidate, an All-Star, a stopper. Or, as his manager said, a horse. They needed a $30 million pitcher, one with 17 or 18 wins, one who would have handcuffed the Mets in a mid-September, pennantrace challenge.
“I leave it all out on the field,” Arrieta said. “We’ll assess the season later. I feel like it could have been better in some areas. But what’s done is done. I’ve got to move forward and just try to be better the next time we go out there.”
He should have at least two more next-times this season. If he doesn’t have any in the postseason, those who saw 97 April pitches might be surprised. As for the Cubs, not so much.