Breaking the politics of the gun issue

Mass shootings always evoke the same responses: horror, sadness, anger, “thoughts and prayers,” and calls for action.

Most think that last point can only be achieved through political action. In that regard, and given the stakes of the 2020 election, let’s analyze which side might come out ahead.

1) The biggest advantage swings to Republicans, because the cardinal rules of electoral politics favor them: motivation and turnout. The “guncontrol, ban-assault-weapons” crowd can be mad as hell, but if their turnout is low, their passions are irrelevant. In particular, that applies to Millennials, who skew Democratic and prefer gun control, but typically vote in lower numbers than the national average. Even though there was an uptick in Millennial voting in the 2018 midterms, it still wasn’t enough to keep Republicans from gaining in the U.S. Senate. (And GOP losses in the House were on par with the historical average). Advantage: Republicans. 2) In most elections, 40 percent of the vote on either side is already determined. The remaining 20 percent comprise the Great American Middle, and they decide the outcome. The gun debate will be frontand-center, and whichever side employs better messaging will gain a significant boost.

The Democrats have a disadvantage in that much of their gun-control platform is based on falsehoods. Contrary to their arguments, assault rifles are not used in most shootings, and America is not unique in mass shootings (it actually ranks 56th, per capita). But the Dems’ big advantage is that the GOP hasn’t the slightest clue about messaging. Instead, Republicans seem content to issue inside-the-Beltway press releases and call it a day, somehow thinking those talking points are reaching Middle America. Advantage: Democrats. 3) For years, Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Pat Toomey has been pushing a bipartisan bill to close loopholes on background checks. Yet his efforts have been rebuffed by his own party. If the GOP doesn’t get its head out of its derriere and take up Mr. Toomey’s proposal, it does so at its own peril.

Republican leaders need to ignore the extremists who label Mr. Toomey a “traitor,” and pass his bill – and for good reason: it mandates that all people buying firearms at gun shows and via the internet be subjected to a 60-second background check. That’s it. No gun registries, no bans, no Second Amendment infringements – just a simple background check.

Advantage: Republicans – if they pass it.

4) The other hot-button gun issue is “red-flag” laws. On their face, they seem reasonable: family members and police can petition a court to have guns seized from people deemed a “threat” to themselves or others. In reality, such arbitrary measures could open a back door to gun confiscation and abuse.

5) Idiocy is not illegal, but it would behoove some gun-rights people to get a shot of common sense. Idea: don’t show up at a gun rally or counter-protest with AK-47’s on full display, as some do. And don’t blame the “liberal media” when they post that shot on the front page.

Do you want to look cool (newsflash: you don’t) by touting guns in public, or do you really care about protecting gun rights? Because the two never go hand-in-hand.

Leave the guns at home, wear something that isn’t camouflage, and articulate a reasonable message with a calm demeanor.

6) Two big mistakes pols often make are assuming they know voters’ mindsets, and taking constituencies for granted. It’s great for Democrats to staunchly favor gun control, and think they have the vast majority of Hispanic support locked up, but they should proceed with caution. In the wake of the El Paso shooting, a record number of Hispanics are now taking firearms classes to buy guns and obtain concealed weapons permits – not exactly things in step with the Democratic Party.

Politicians would be smart to figure out what changed so radically from just two decades ago to now, as we’ve morphed from relative peace to regularly-occurring massacres. The American people are imploring them to put partisanship aside, work together, and move quickly on reasonable solutions. If they don’t, a 2020 election tragedy could be upon both parties faster than a speeding bullet.