Historian says epidemics follow predictable course

A Berks County public health historian says epidemics follow a pretty much predictable course, and he sees no reason why the coronavirus pandemic should be any different.

Dr. Darwin H. Stapleton of Wyomissing, an archivist who’s studied the history of contagious diseases, said knowing more about past epidemics could ease fears surrounding COVID-19.

“Understanding the typical stages of epidemic disease will not prevent anyone from getting it,” Stapleton said, “but it may be reassuring to know it’s likely the current epidemic ultimately will be understood and controlled.”

Stapleton, 72, is executive di

rector emeritus of the Rockefeller Archive Center in New York. Its collection includes scientific studies done at Rockefeller University in New York, the oldest biomedical research institute in the United States.

In a brief paper, “A Nonpolitical Historical Approach To Understanding the Stages of Epidemic Disease,” Stapleton outlined 10 stages of an epidemic.

Current efforts to control the spread of the coronavirus, such as quarantine, mirror strategies employed in past epidemics, he said.

The challenge faced by authorities is to figure out how this epidemic is the same or different than those of the past.

“Each epidemic has unique aspects,” Stapleton said. “We need to figure out what’s unique about this epidemic and take actions that are effective against it.”

The influenza epidemic of 1918, sometimes called the Spanish flu, was marked by what Stapleton termed a double peak.

Its first wave began in March 1918, but subsided by summer, only to resurface with a vengeance in fall. An estimated 195,000 Americans died of the flu in October 1918 alone.

The 1918 pandemic, which affected an estimated 500 million people worldwide, had what scientists term a “W” curve. Its victims were largely young and old.

One of the unknowns regarding COVID-19, Stapleton said, is whether it will be concentrated among the elderly or impact all ages.

The polio epidemic of the early 1950s, he said, mainly struck children.

Stapleton recalls receiving polio vaccine shots at Kutztown University’s Lab School, which he attended as a child. His father, Martin Luther Stapleton, taught biology at Kutztown.

He still remembers seeing photographs of children in so-called iron lungs, mechanical respirators that assisted polio victims in breathing.

Jonas Salk and Bruce Sabin developed separate polio vaccines in the 1950s. Eventually, they virtually rendered the disease nonexistent in developed countries.

It took years to develop a polio vaccine, but Stapleton believes that may not be the case with COVID-19.

The rapidity with which scientific information can be transmitted via the internet, he said, should reduce the time it takes to develop a treatment. Much of the early information on COVID-19, he said, came from scientists in China.

Stapleton, who held positions at Case Western University and the University of Massachusetts, said past experience suggests large numbers of people will develop an immunity to coronavirus.

“I’m confident we will see our way through this,” he said. “Epidemics do end, the problem is right now we don’t know exactly when.”