Trump must reach out to black voters
President Donald Trump will hold a rally this weekend in Tulsa, where he will bask in the adulation of his adoring base. His approval rating is the most stable in modern presidential history. No president has ever had such a committed core of supporters.
But Trump’s Achilles’ heel has been his seeming lack of interest in not just rallying his base but also expanding it by winning over skeptics who did not vote for him in 2016 yet have benefited from his policies. The recent crises facing our country have provided a historic opportunity to sway these voters, one that Trump has so far failed to seize. It’s not too late to do so — and his Tulsa rally is the place to start.
After the Democrats’ failed impeachment drive, Trump’s approval rose to 49% in the Gallup poll — an all-time high for him. The poll also showed that 63% approved of his handling of the economy. That meant 14% approved of his policies but did not approve of him — yet. If he could win even some of those voters over, he could not just win reelection but do so in a landslide.
Then came an unprecedented trifecta of crises: the worst pandemic since 1918; the worst economic destruction since the Great Depression; and the worst social unrest since the 1960s. No president had ever faced such a sequence of devastation. Trump’s approval has slipped back down to the low 40s in most polls. Instead of gaining even more supporters, he lost his new converts.
Trump can still turn it around, but to do so he must recognize that he can tend his base and grow it at the same time. His voters are already highly motivated. A Washington Post-ABC News poll from March found that among registered voters, 55% of Trump supporters are “very” enthusiastic about supporting him, compared with just 28% of Biden supporters.
Biden is especially vulnerable with African Americans. The Post reports that Biden is underperforming with black voters, just 79% of whom say they plan to vote for him compared with 88% who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Young black voters are even less enthusiastic about Biden than their elders. Only 68% of African Americans aged 18 to 29 intend to vote for Biden — 17 points fewer than supported Clinton four years ago. Another 13% say they will vote for Trump, while 18% say they don’t know.
In other words, 31% are not backing Biden right now. So, persuade them to support you, Mr. President. It should not be hard for the president who delivered criminal justice reform, funding for opportunity zones and the lowest black unemployment rate in history.
During his Tulsa rally, the president should appeal directly to black Americans. He should express his solidarity with George Floyd and Breonna Taylor, and declare his determination to reform the police and get rid of bad cops who mistreat our African American brothers and sisters. He should say that he stands with the peaceful protesters and that he will not be satisfied until the promise of equality is realized for every one of our citizens regardless of the color of their skin.
He should also tell the stories of the black Americans who were killed in the riots — like David Dorn, Chris Beaty and Italia Marie Kelly — and explain that defunding the police would hurt minority communities the most. When he touts the recent jobs numbers, he should also acknowledge that African American unemployment rose slightly — and promise that he will make it his mission to ensure that we return to the historic levels of black employment we enjoyed before the pandemic. That is a message that will resonate both with black voters and with independents who hunger for a message of unity.
The president feels that he already says these things, but the media does not report it. He is right. But that just means he needs to say it more. Everyone will be watching his Tulsa rally. He should use it as an opportunity to speak not only to his supporters in the hall, but also to the millions of Americans who have never been to a Trump rally and who did not vote him in 2016 — but who might just pull the lever for Trump in November if he appeals for their votes.