Prepare to give the vaccine a fighting chance

The longer the pandemic hangs around, the more reluctant many have become to follow guidelines.

The fall resurgence of the coronavirus did not arrive without warning. Health officials cautioned that virus cases would likely spike upward as cooler temperatures forced social gatherings indoors.

Just when we should have renewed a commitment to wearing masks and maintaining social distance indoors, many Americans instead ignored the experts’ guidance.

The longer the pandemic hangs around, the more reluctant many have become to follow the public health guidelines. Some think we’ve been doing these things for months, and here we are still fighting the same invisible enemy. We might as well throw a party and with it throw caution to the wind.

Besides, a vaccine is coming soon, and it will wipe out vulnerability to COVID-19. Or will it?

A new study reported Tuesday in The New York Times notes the virus surge may be so widespread and intense that the vaccine may not be administered fast enough to stop it.

“The vaccines will be much less effective at preventing death and illness in 2021 if they are introduced into a population where the coronavirus is raging — as is now the case in the U.S.,” a new paper in the journal Health Affairs states, the Times reported.

The Times offers the analogy of a fire hose, whose force can be compared to the effectiveness of the vaccine. If the size and intensity of the fire is massive, the amount coming from the hose will not be enough to put it out.

The rate at which the virus is currently spreading will counteract the effectiveness of the vaccine. Just as people are getting shots, others are contracting the disease. And if the spread is occurring at a greater rate, which seems to be the current trajectory, the vaccine will prevent cases of COVID-19 but will not be able to prevent enough to slow the pandemic to an acceptable level.

“No vaccine can eliminate a pandemic immediately, just as no fire hose can put out a forest fire. While the vaccine is being distributed, the virus continues to do damage,” the Times wrote.

“Bluntly stated, we’ll get out of this pandemic faster if we give the vaccine less work to do,” A. David Paltiel, one of the Health Affairs authors and a professor at the Yale School of Public Health, told the Times.

“Giving the vaccine less work to do” requires more diligence on the part of the public. Experts have said consistently that embracing universal mask-wearing and social distancing, avoiding large group gatherings and utilizing rapid-response testing and contact tracing can reduce the spread of the disease and save tens of thousands of lives.

Doing this over the next few months will allow the vaccine to have an impact on the spread, a spread that is claiming thousands of lives every day.

In the latest statewide reports, Montgomery County recorded a COVID-19 percentpositivity rate of 10.3%, an increase from the 7.9% positivity rate recorded during the seven-day period Nov. 20 to Nov. 26, and substantially higher than the 2-to-3% rates of the summer.

Bucks County recorded the highest positivity rate in the region at 15.3% for the period ending Dec. 3. Berks recorded 14% positivity; Chester, 10.2% and Delaware County, 12.5%.

Health officials believe having a positivity rate less than 5% indicates a county is controlling the spread of the virus and keeping it suppressed.

The state has added more stringent personal guidelines, such as wearing masks around others not residing in your household even in your own home or outdoors. But many continue to flout the guidelines or adhere haphazardly. A mask on the chin is not preventing spread.

The coming of a new year brings with it a vaccine that has the potential for enough immunity to allow some return to life as we knew it. We need to pave the way for the vaccine to do its job so that happy result can occur. Wear a mask, avoid gatherings, socially distance. Give the vaccine a chance.