Tracking the virus by the numbers
NORRISTOWN >> Montgomery County recorded its highest number of positive coronavirus cases last December but signs are emerging to indicate the county is beginning to control the spread of the virus as it reaches the one-year anniversary of the pandemic.
According to county health data, the sevenday average of cases reached 453.4 on Monday, Dec. 7, which is referred to as the worst day of the pandemic or the fall peak. The number of positive tests on that date climbed to 688.
The 14-day positivity rate stood at 10.85% on Dec. 7. Health officials believe having a positivity rate less than 5% indicates a county is controlling the spread of the virus and keeping it suppressed.
But more than two months later, by Wednesday, Feb. 24, the sevenday average of cases had dropped to 107.4, the lowest number since last summer, and there were only 127 positive tests recorded on that date. The 14-day positivity rate stood at 5.61%, according to county figures.
There were 468 people hospitalized with COVID-19 in the county’s nine hospitals on Dec. 7 but by Feb. 24 the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients had dropped to 154, according to county coronavirus key indicators.
The pandemic presented a series of ups and downs as county health officials tracked the virus throughout the year.
The first two cases of COVID-19 were identified in the county on March 7, 2020, and once community spread became evident, a spring surge of cases quickly followed. The county became the epicenter for the virus in Southeast Pennsylvania.
On March 21, officials reported the first COVID-19 death in the county, a 72-year-old Abington man.
By Friday, April 24, 2020, the seven-day average of cases reached 163, the number of positive tests on that date climbed to 275 and the 14-day positivity rate soared to 24.56%. That date, on which COVID-19 hospitalizations reached 430, is considered the spring peak of the virus.
“The situation was changing so rapidly,” county Commissioners’ Chairwoman Dr. Valerie Arkoosh recalled during a recent interview.
During the spring surge, Gov. Tom Wolf ordered schools, community centers, childcare centers licensed by the state, gyms, entertainment venues and nonessential businesses in the county of more than 820,000 people to close. Later, court operations were reduced and efforts were made to reduce the inmate population at the county jail.
“And I think it helped. Our numbers came down very, very quickly once we got a handle on the situation,” explained Arkoosh, who as a physician has been at the forefront of the county’s efforts to combat COVID-19 and provide citizens with the latest information regarding the outbreak.
By Wednesday, June 17, 2020, the seven-day average of cases dropped to 26.7 and officials recorded only 35 positive tests on that date, which is considered the summer low. The 14-day positivity rate was 4.94% on June 17 and 100 people were hospitalized with COVID-19, according to the data.
“Our numbers came down and they stayed down until the fall and right before Halloween and then all the holidays came and that was very challenging. For months we were in a great place. The fall and winter holidays were just devastating for us. Our worst days were after Thanksgiving,” said Arkoosh, referring to the Dec. 7 data.
“It started to get cold. When it starts to get cold, people go inside, number one, which is a problem with this virus, and number two, these types of viruses stay suspended in the air longer when the air is cooler and less humid,” Arkoosh added. “People started to go inside and weather started to cool off and I think we just started to see enormous fatigue about this virus.”
Other key indicators during the year-long pandemic showed that the seven-day incidence rate of cases per 100,000 people was 137.3 last April 24, had decreased to 22.5 on June 17, and increased to 382.0 by Dec. 7. On Feb. 24, that seven-day incidence rate had dropped to 90.5.
The latest available data indicates a more positive trend for long-term care facilities.
Statistics showed that during the seven-day period ending April 24, there were 457 positive cases of the virus in the county’s long-term care facilities. That seven-day number dropped to 29 by June 17, increased to 107 on Dec. 7 and by Feb. 24, there were only 11 positive cases reported in long-term care facilities, according to county key indicators.
The county recorded 126 deaths from the virus over the 14-day period ending April 24 and 76 deaths over the 14-day period ending June 17. For the 14-day period ending Dec. 7 the county announced 27 virus deaths. During the most recent 14-day period ending Feb. 24, the county recorded 38 deaths.
“That is an increase in number,” Arkoosh reacted to the number of most recent deaths. “As we’ve talked about during this entire pandemic, sadly, deaths do lag cases. Oftentimes, it’s weeks to a month or even longer before someone passes away from COVID-19. So, it’s not unusual to see an increase like this, given the numbers of cases that we were seeing a few weeks ago.
“But it is a reminder of how serious this situation remains,” Arkoosh said.
As of Friday, a total of 1,233 county residents had died from the virus since the pandemic first surfaced in March 2020.