STARTING OFF ON THE RIGHT FOOT

New Haven-area economy well positioned heading into 2017

The New Haven-area economy is well positioned heading into 2017, according to the author of the New Haven Register’s economic scorecard.

Seven of the eight economic indicators that make up the scorecard are headed in a positive direction, according to Donald Klepper-Smith, chief economist and director of research for New Haven-based DataCore Partners. The only indicator Klepper-Smith gave a negative rating to in November was real disposable income, which was essentially unchanged from the same period in 2015.

But solid numbers among several other indicators — a 1.4 percent decline in unemployment for the region as well as an additional 1,700 jobs last November compared to the same period in 2015 — gave KlepperSmith reason for optimism.

“Santa showed up a little early this year,” he said.

With the addition of 1,700 jobs in the New Haven Labor Market Area and a 3.7 percent unemployment rate, KlepperSmith said the region is nearly at full employment.

Full employment, according to many economists, is when there is enough overall demand in the economy for everyone who wants a job to have one.

But Klepper-Smith said any enthusiasm about the New Haven area’s overall economic picture must be tempered with a realization that we are in a slow growth economy.

“People have waited to see tangible growth in consumer spending power and their expectations have been largely unrealized,” he said.

The Connecticut economic forecast for 2017 calls for growth that is roughly half the national average or in the 1 percent to 1.5 percent range, according to Klepper-Smith. His prediction is based on modest gains in manufacturing output, but only fractional growth in consumer spending power over the next 12 months.

Seven of the eight economic indicators that make up the scorecard are headed in a positive direction, according to Donald KlepperSmith, chief economist and director of research for New Havenbased DataCore Partners.