Motivated to keep this current playoff roll going

Earlier this week, I was asked by a friend how come I’ve been so successful handicapping the NFL playoffs.

For me, it’s a combination of factors.

As a result of those factors, I enter conference championship weekend with a 7-1 record both against the spread and straight up in this year’s playoffs. The previous three seasons, I am a solid 31-8-2 ATS and 34-7 straight up in the playoffs.

The starting point when handicapping the playoffs is actually the regular season. As the regular season ends, there is the benefit of having gone through a 17-game regular season. While there are certain trends that develop, NFL fans can get a sense of teams that are peaking or on the verge of peaking as they enter the postseason.

Some of the other factors are home-field advantage and visiting teams that travel well and who had success on the road in the regular season.

Injuries are another factor. There are teams that are impacted by losing players for the postseason and teams that have impact players return just in time for the playoffs.

Another obvious factor is the oddsmakers. I focus on lines that reflect Las Vegas-based spreads, since the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have been doing this a long time.

While I can’t speak for other handicappers, for me, another factor to consider is an out-of-the-box aspect — my gut feeling. I take a lot of stock into motivational factors that can take many forms. For example, if a matchup involves teams that met during the regular season, and one team swept the other team, it’s a good bet the team on the losing end will be motivated to step up and take their game to another level.

If an impact player missed several games heading into the playoffs due to injury and returns, it’s a good bet that player will be motivated to produce big time.

However, while motivation can be an implied factor, I consider all the other factors mentioned above first. A motivational factor should only enhance your handicapping research, not dominate it.

Once in a while that motivational factor can produce a handicapping hiccup. In the recent wild-card round, I was convinced the Giants would at least cover at Green Bay. While the strong Giants defense was a key factor for me, quarterback Eli Manning’s historical success once he reached the playoffs was a motivational factor. The Giants looked good early with a 6-0 lead but went on to get trounced by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

That one game was my only handicapping glitch in the playoffs. In retrospect, I should have known better and the only thing you can do is learn from your mistakes.

Today’s games

Green Bay at Atlanta (-5): This game will likely be a shootout with many points scored. I believe Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will come away with the win. At this stage, while Atlanta and quarterback Matt Ryan have been tough all season, you can’t bet against the red-hot Rodgers and the Packers. For the Packers, this is a carbon copy of last week’s Dallas game. A week ago on the road, Green Bay faced a top quarterback (Dak Prescott), solid running game (Ezekiel Elliott), an elite receiver (Dez Bryant) and an improving but beatable defensive secondary. This week on the road, Green Bay faces an elite quarterback, solid running game, an elite receiver (Julio Jones) and an improving but beatable defensive secondary. Last week, the Packers came away with a 34-31 win. This week ... Nowak’s Pick: Packers 38-34. Pittsburgh at New England (-5.5): The Steelers will certainly present a tougher test than Houston did a week ago. The Patriots might even fall behind in this game with Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le’Veon Bell and receiver Antonio Brown enjoying some success. But in my opinion the Pats have the best defense of all four teams left in the playoffs. The Patriots are tough to beat at home and Tom Brady is, well, Tom Brady. Nowak’s pick: Patriots 31-21.