Connecticut will be among ‘battleground’ states in 2018

HARTFORD — Connecticut is one of 10 states that are being considered a “battleground” for 2018 when it comes to which party may control the state House and Senate.

Ballotpedia, an online encyclopedia of elections, is tracking the races and found Connecticut’s House and Senate races have the potential to result in a shift in power from Democratic to Republican control.

There are 99 state legislative chambers throughout the United States, and 87 of them are holding general elections in 2018.

Heading into the 2018 elections, Republicans control 32 of the country’s 50 state legislatures, Democrats control 13, and five legislatures are split between the parties.

The last time Republicans controlled the Senate in Connecticut was from 1994 to 1996 and the last time they controlled the House was 1986.

In the Senate, Democrats have seen their majority slip from 24-12 after the 2008 election to an 18-18 tie. House Democrats, meanwhile, held a 114-37 margin after the 2008 election, and have seen it dwindle to 79-72.

In the last several elections, Republicans have made gains in both chambers, including drawing even in the state Senate in 2016.

Ballotpedia said the Senate chamber is a battleground because Republicans gained three seats in 2016.

Both parties need to gain one seat to take outright control of the chamber. At the moment, Democrats have a small advantage because Lt. Gov. Nancy Wyman, a Democrat, presides over the chamber and can cast a tie-breaking vote.

According to Ballotpedia, both parties have opportunities to pick up seats. In 2016, there were four seats with a margin of victory of less than 5 percent. Three were won by Republicans and one was won by a Democrat. There are nine Republicancontrolled seats in districts that were won by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election

In 2016, Republicans gained eight seats in the House, decreasing the Democrats’ advantage in the chamber from 86-64 to 7972. To take control of the chamber in 2018, Republicans need a net gain of four more seats.

Ballotpedia said Connecticut has one “pivot county” that includes eight House districts — Windham. The reason it’s considered a pivot county is because residents there votersvoted for Barack Obama in 2008 and in 2012 they voted for Republican PresidentDonald Trump.

In 2016, 40 of Connecticut’s state House districts — 26.5 percent of all districts — voted for a presidential candidate of one party and a state House candidate from the other party. A total of 33 districts voted for Clinton and a Republican for state House, and seven districts voted for Trump and a Democrat for state House.

Ballotpedia said they chose the Connecticut House as a chamber to watch because 16 seats won by Democrats in 2016 had a margin of victory that was less than 10 percent. Twelve seats won by Republicans had a margin of victory less than 10 percent.

They said the other reason is the Democrats’ narrow margin of control in the House — 79 of the 151 seats, or 52.3 percent of the total.

While Connecticut has a landmark clean elections program, Ballotopedia said it expects an influx of outside money from independent expenditure groups to be involved in trying to influence the balance of power.

Rob Oldham, a writer for Ballotpedia’s state legislative project, said last week they’re tracking outside spending by independent expenditure groups participating in these elections.

At the moment, he said the only one they’re aware of is a Democratic Super PAC called Forward Majority Action, which is targeting targeting 12 state legislatures in the 2017 and 2018 elections. Connecticut is not one of the states the group is targeting.

Political lines will be redrawn after the 2020 census, which could increase the amount of outside money flowing into these competitive states, according to Oldham.

He said often it takes more than one election cycle to flip party control of a chamber, so they expect to see an increase in outside spending in 2020 as well.

HARTFORD — Every fall Kiplinger’s, a publisher of business forecasts and personal financial advice, releases its top 10 list of most tax-friendly states and least tax-friendly states.

Connecticut has made the top 10 least tax-friendly states the last three years in a row, however, its ranking has dropped (meaning an improvement) considerably between 2015 and 2017.

In 2015, it was the second least tax-friendly state. It dropped to third in 2016, and it dropped six more spots to ninth place this year — a marked improvement.

However, David Muhlbaum, online editor at Kiplinger’s, said that’s related more to a change in methodology than to Connecticut’s tax policy.

He said this year they used two sample taxpayers to calculate and compare the taxes in a given state and the impact it would have on those fictional taxpayers. He said that caused places with certain tax policies to drop and others to rise in the rankings.

For example, California, which taxes its top income tax bracket at 13.3 percent, also dropped a few spots due to the new methodology. California came in at number eight, just ahead of Connecticut, where the top income tax bracket is 6.99 percent for couples making more than $1 million in earned income and single individuals making more than $500,000 in earned income.

Muhlbaum said they also applied the state’s fiscal health to the calculation using data from the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, which scored Connecticut 37th — a jump up from last place in 2016.

That study, which came out in July, said “Connecticut’s fiscal health is greatly improved on a budgetary basis, but its metrics are still poor on a cash and long-run basis.”

According to Kiplinger’s latest analysis, Maryland is now the No. 1 least taxfriendly state followed by Minnesota and New York. Coming in 10th place behind Connecticut is New Jersey.

The most tax-friendly state in 2017 was Wyoming, followed by Alaska and South Dakota. Mississippi was the 10th most taxfriendly state.

In its narrative about Connecticut, Kiplinger’s says the only “bright spot” is that municipalities can’t pile on the 6.35 percent sales tax. That’s a tax that can be levied only by the state.

“Real estate taxes are the fourth-highest in the county and the state has not only a gift tax, but a luxury tax,” Kiplinger’s wrote.

The median annual property tax on a home value of $270,500 is $5,327, according to the Tax Foundation.

Connecticut also imposes a tax on the transfer of estates valued at $2 million or more at a progressive rate starting at 7.2 percent. The rate rises to a maximum of 12 percent for an estate valued above $10.1 million. There is no inheritance tax.

Connecticut is the only state with a gift tax, which applies to real and tangible personal property in Connecticut and intangible personal property anywhere for permanent residents. Only the amount given after Jan. 1, 2005, and over $2 million, is taxed, starting at 7.2 percent of the excess and rising to $748,200 plus 12 percent of the excess over $10.1 million.

The Tax Foundation also released its index this week of state’s business tax climate and Connecticut came in 44th place, slipping one spot from 43rd place over the last three years.

There was an effort under way in Connecticut, spearheaded largely by business groups and chambers of commerce, to make Connecticut a top 20 economy by the year 2017. The campaign was called CT20x17.

Since that time Connecticut has climbed in the CNBC business rankings. In July it jumped 10 spots.

However, Joe Brennan, president and CEO of the Connecticut Business and Industry Association, has said the trick will be to sustain that growth.