Flu cases starting to climb

Vaccine’s effectiveness comes into question

Some flu protection is better than no flu protection.

That’s the mantra of Dr. Zane Saul, Bridgeport Hospital’s chief of infectious disease. He said any time people hear the flu shot isn’t a perfect match for circulating viruses, they’re reluctant to get vaccinated.

So his teeth were set on edge by a recent study showing the effectiveness of this year’s flu shot could be as low as 10 percent.

“The flu-shot-phobic people will hear that and say, ‘Of course! It doesn’t work!’ ” Saul said.

Despite that report — published last week in the New England Journal of Medicine — Saul and other experts said it’s still unclear how effective this year’s flu vaccine is, and in most cases getting the vaccine is better than not getting protected against the infectious respiratory illness — even when the vaccine isn’t an ideal match for circulating viruses.

Meanwhile, flu activity in Connecticut is climbing steadily. As of Nov. 25, a total of 142 people tested positive for the flu, up from 96 the week before, according tto the state Department of Public Health.

The state also reports that 54 people were hospitalized, which rose from 39 the week before. There weren’t any deaths.

The New England Journal of Medicine study is based largely on reports from Australia, which gets the flu season before this side of the world.

Australia had not only record high numbers of flu cases, hospitalizations and deaths, but also a flu shot that doesn’t seem to be a good match for the predominant strains.

The report states that influenza A (H3N2) viruses are predominant in the Southern Hemisphere, and a preliminary estimate showed the vaccine as only 10 percent effective against that strain.

The report said it’s unclear how that will affect the Northern Hemisphere’s flu season — which typically starts in October and can run as late as May — but this season’s vaccine has the same composition as the one being used in the Southern Hemisphere.

Yet an expert from the state DPH said it’s a bit early to push the panic button and declare this season’s vaccine ineffective.

“It is important to remember that the flu season in the U.S. is just starting to ramp up, and no studies on vaccine effectiveness for the Northern Hemisphere have been completed so far,” said Mick Bolduc, DPH’s vaccine coordinator for the Connecticut Immunization Program. “Although the flu numbers from Australia are concerning and bear watching, the implications for the U.S. are not known at this point. Even in seasons when the vaccine is not a great match to the circulating flu strains, a flu shot is still the best protection an individual can get to protect not only against influenza disease but also from severe illness, hospitalization and death from flu-related complications.”

Locally, doctors agreed that it’s still too early to know whether the Northern Hemisphere’s flu season will mirror what’s going on in Australia.

“The Australia data is interesting, but we don’t know yet how well it applies to us,” said Dr. Michael Parry, director of infectious diseases at Stamford Hospital. “The virus changes from month to month. It can change for the worse or the better.”

Saul said even if the shot is a poor match for influenza A (H3N2), it will likely work well against other strains. Also, those who get the shot and contract influenza A (H3N2) will likely recover faster than those who don’t get vaccinated.

“This (report) is not a reason to not get a flu shot,” Saul said.

In Connecticut, influenza A viruses are dominating in the state, as they are nationwide. The state DPH reports that 106 of the positive flu cases were type A, with an unspecified subtype and 17 were type A (H3N2).

The bulk of cases were in Fairfield County, which had 49 people test positive for the flu.

Hartford County was close behind, with 43 cases, and New Haven County was a distant third with 26.

Flu activity in the state is classified as “regional,” meaning there have been outbreaks of influenza or increases in flu-like illnesses and recent lab-confirmed influenza in at least two, but less than half the regions of the state.

The regional classification is one step down from “widespread,” which represents the highest level of flu activity. So far, flu is widespread in four states — Georgia, Louisiana, Massachusetts and Oklahoma.

In Stamford, Parry said he’s only seeing a couple of cases a week. “It’s very sporadic — nothing dramatic yet,” he said.

Saul said he’s seen only a few flu cases at Bridgeport Hospital so far this season, but expects it to pick up soon.

“We’re planning on this being a fairly robust flu season,” he said.