The Middletown Press (Middletown, CT)
Small pool of voters expected
The next Republican candidate for governor may be elected by fewer voters than the population of Naugatuck.
The entire voting pool of the GOP’s five-way Aug. 14 primary may not even reach the population of Stamford: 129,000. In fact, it’s possble that 30,000 votes will clinch it for one of the hopefuls: party-endorsed Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, Tim Herbst of Trumbull, Steve Obsitnik of Westport, Bob Stefanowski of Madison and David Stemerman, of Greenwich.
Between now and then, the five candidates will slog through the summer trying to energize supporters, saturate the airwaves, follow you on your computer, and differentiate themselves from the pack.
When the smoke clears on primary night, the winner will then have to hope that rifts in the GOP can be repaired in time for the fall general election, against the winner of the less-complicated Democratic primary.
“It’s going to result in a nominee with a very small percentage, a very small plurality,” said Gary L. Rose, chairman of the Department of Government, Politics and Global Studies at Sacred Heart University, “which is not the best way to begin a general-election campaign.”
A slice for everyone
Rose anticipates that more conservative Republicans will be looking at Herbst, the former Trumbull first selectman, as well as Stefanowski, a former executive at General Electric and UBS, while moderates will likely be divided among Boughton, Stemerman and Obsitnik.
Each has a distinct core of supporters.
“I think this will be a real slugfest,” Rose said of the summer campaign. “There’s going to be a question about a mandate. You wonder whether the brand will be damaged as a result. Everyone will be appealing to their bases. Every candidate will be out for their certain slice.”
Rose said the self-funding Stefanowski and Stemerman, who are not participating in the voluntary public-funding program, have gotten a big jump in advertising. Stefanowski’s slick ads in particular have impressed Rose. But Stefanowski, who has never held public office, also has a history of contributing to Democrats, which is expected to become a bigger issue as the campaign progresses.
Stefanowski has begun to attack Boughton and Herbst for taking “taxpayers money” for their campaigns. The Citizens’ Election Program is mostly funded by unclaimed property in the state treasurer’s office, from the estates of those who die without heirs.
Boughton and Herbst will each get $1.3 million early this week, and their TV ads could be running by mid-week. Obsitnik’s application for the Citizens’ Election Program still awaits approval before the State Elections Enforcement Commission.
“They have to do some quick work,” Rose said of Herbst, the former Trumbull first selectman, as well as Boughton, in the race for paid media exposure.
Ground game
Only a fraction of the 450,000 active Republican voters are expected to show up at the polls.
In 2014, just under 80,000 voters cast a ballot for either Tom Foley or John McKinney. Foley won. In 2010, a 3-way primary, Foley won with 50,792 votes in an election that saw a total of 120,000 votes cast.
Some observers have said the larger field will draw more primary voters but J.R. Romano, the state Republican chairman, said he expects about 120,000 votes will be cast. If that happens and the candidate percentages range from, say, 12 percent to 25 percent, someone could win the niomination with 30,000 votes — less than Naugatuck’s population of 32,000.
“The typical GOP voter is a white guy, first of all,” said Rose, the author of a book on the 4th Congressional District, who is currently researching a book on state governors’ races. “It’s also going to be partisan. If I had to say there is an edge, the edge could be given to the conservatives .... Turnout is always low. I don’t like to predict outcomes, but the nature of the outcome leans to Herbst and Stefanowski.”
The idea behind that thinking is that more conservative voters — or on the Democratic side, more liberal ones — show up in greater numbers at primaries.
“This whole thing comes down to whoever has the best ground game,” Rose said.
Romano, who will remain neutral until after the primary, said he’ll be comfortable with any of the five men who emerges victorious on August 14.
“I think we’re in uncharted territory,” he said of the huge field of candidates with what he called a fortunate plethora of options.
“They’re actually going to have real choices,” Romano said. “The candidates are highly accomplished, whether politically professionally or both. At the end of the day, the state of Connecticut wins because all of these individuals are willing to take over the leadership of Connecticut.”