Keeping an eye on the injury report

The common denominator to key on in Week 3 when it comes to betting on the NFL is injuries on both sides of the ledger — teams missing key players due to injuries and key players returning after recovering from injuries.

One team I’m keying on this week is Jacksonville giving Tennessee 91⁄2 points. The big factor is the expected return of Jaguars standout running back Leonard Fournette. He suffered a hamstring injury in Week 1 and missed last week’s game with New England but has practiced this past week.

The Jaguars tough defense should stifle the Titans offense and Fournette has the ability to dominate.

In the Los Angeles Bowl with the Chargers at the Rams, this game will likely be close for a while. But by the fourth quarter I see the tough Rams defense and standout offense led by all-world running back Todd Gurley taking over.

Injuries are key in this matchup too, with the Chargers’ missing pass rusher Joey Bosa (foot injury) and solid cornerback Jason Verrett (Achilles, injured reserve).

In a game not necessarily impacted by injuries, I am on the Chicago bandwagon this week after watching it beat Seattle 24-17 on Monday night.

The Bears are a different animal on defense this season with Khalil Mack on board. The Bears, leading the league with 10 sacks through the first two weeks, are giving Arizona 51⁄2 points. I think this will be a low scoring game with the Bears dominating on both defense and offense.

SUNDAY’S GAMES

New Orleans at Atlanta (-3): This is another game impacted by injuries. The Falcons are banged up on defense and a big blow is running back Devonta Freeman out with a with knee injury. The Saints have a tough rush defense to limit Atlanta back Tevin Coleman and QB Drew Brees will provide the points to cover. Nowak’s pick: Saints 31-24.

Buffalo at Minnesota (-16 1 ⁄2): No question the Bills stink. But it’s tough to pass on this big a spread in an NFL game. Bills back LeSean McCoy, if a nagging rib injury subsides, could come up with his best game of the season to keep the game close and kill the clock. And oh yeah, another injury alert — Vikings lead back Dalvin Cook is out with a hamstring injury. Vikings win, Bills cover in a tight one. Nowak’s pick: Vikings 24-21.

Indianapolis at Philadelphia (-7): You might have noticed the last two weeks I’m on the Colts bandwagon this season. Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz returns from a knee injury but the team has key injuries on both sides of the ball. Nowak’s pick: Colts 27-20.

Cincinnati at Carolina (-3): The Bengals look tough on both sides of the ball. The key is whether or not you think the Bengals “D” can stop the Panthers rushing game led by Cam Newton. Nowak’s pick: Bengals 24-17.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (-91⁄2): See above.

Nowak’s pick: Jaguars 30-13.

Denver at Baltimore (-5): These teams seem as evenly matched as matchups come in the NFL. Baltimore wins, Denver covers.

Nowak’s pick: Ravens 24-23.

Giants at Houston (-6): The Giants have talent on offense but they need to find a rhythm and have all those parts get on the same page. Nowak’s pick: Texans 30-20.

Oakland at Miami (-3): Jury is still out on both teams. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill will likely grind out another win here playing at home. Nowak’s pick: Dolphins 24-17.

Green Bay at Washington (+3): Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers will continue to play through a MCL sprain and that should be enough to beat Washington. Nowak’s pick: Packers 27-20.

San Francisco at Kansas City (-61⁄2): If you didn’t believe in Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes before, you should now. In two weeks he has only thrown for 10 touchdowns, he said sarcastically. Nowak’s pick: Chiefs 33-17.

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-7): See above. Nowak’s pick: Rams 34-21.

Chicago at Arizona (+51⁄2): See above. Nowak’s pick: Bears 24-10.

Dallas at Seattle (-1): This is a tough one, but addition tells me that a struggling Seattle offensive line plus a strong Cowboys defense equals a Dallas cover. Nowak’s pick: Cowboys 24-20.

New England at Detroit (-7): The Lions defense needs a lot of work and the Pats will be workin’ it on both the ground and air in a blowout. Nowak’s-pick: Patriots 44-17.

MONDAY’S GAME

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (+1): Speaking about not believing in Mahomes, what about red-hot Tampa Bay QB Ryan Fitzpatrick? Talk about a wacky start to the season. Fitzy has been impressive with 8 TD passes and 819 yards passing in two games. Unbelievable. This game should be a lot of fun to watch. Nowak’s pick: Buccaneers 34-27.