The Middletown Press (Middletown, CT)
Home teams looking good heading into Week 5
Modest point spreads overall in Week 5 have me leaning toward some home team favorites that I believe should easily cover.
One team I like a lot is Pittsburgh hosting Atlanta and only giving the Falcons 3 points.
It’s been an up-and-down season for the Steelers (12-1) who have allowed more points (122) than they have scored (116) the first four weeks.
The key for me in this spot is Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who has a history of being a much better player at home. I also believe receiver Antonio Brown will have one of his best games against a struggling Atlanta defense.
The Falcons will score, but I think the Steelers produce one of their best offensive games of the season for an easy win.
Another team I like this week is the Los Angeles Chargers hosting Oakland and only giving the Raiders 51⁄2 points.
This game is expected to be a shootout with both teams having issues on defense — the Chargers have allowed 120 points and the Raiders 123.
I believe the key here is Chargers receiver Mike Williams. While quarterback Philip Rivers, running back Melvin Gordon and receiver Keenan Allen will spearhead the offense, Williams will likely be motivated to rebound in this spot at home after a quiet game against San Francisco last week. In the first three games Williams produced 189 yards and scored three touchdowns.
TODAY’S GAMES
Baltimore at Cleveland (+3): Cleveland isn’t the pushover they have been, but the stifling Ravens defense will be the dominant factor and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Ravens pick-six or two. Nowak’s pick: Ravens 31-13.
Jacksonville at Kansas City (-3): The best defense in the league vs. the most prolific offense. This will be close most of the game, but I think the Chiefs eventually cover this modest point spread. Nowak’s pick:
Chiefs 23-17.
Tennessee at Buffalo (+31⁄2): Scoring is an issue for the Bills, and while the defense has had its positive moments, it still has allowed 106 points. The Titans find a way to cover. Nowak’s pick: Titans 24-17.
Giants at Carolina (-7):
The Giants seem to have the pieces in place to be strong on offense, but they have yet to click and get into a rhythm. Carolina quarterback Cam Newton dominates this game with his arm and his legs. Nowak’s pick: Panthers 34-17.
Denver at Jets (-1): The Broncos should do enough on both sides of the ball to cover this modest point spread, including taking advantage of the Jets struggling secondary. Nowak’s pick: Broncos 27-20.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-3): See above. Nowak’s pick: Steelers 37-24.
Green Bay at Detroit (+11⁄2): I believe this is a statement game for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford against the NFC North rival Packers. Despite the Lions 1-3 record, they have been playing better on both sides of the ball this season. The key will be the Lions improved offensive line giving Stafford the time to connect with his receivers and keeping pace with the Packers offense. Nowak’s pick: Lions 30-24.
Miami at Cincinnati (-61⁄2): Both teams are dealing with injuries, but the Bengals will be impacted on offense. Running back Joe Mixon returns, but Giovanni Bernard has been ruled out. The biggest blow could be loss of standout tight end Tyler Eifert who suffered a season-ending ankle injury last week. After getting blown out by the Patriots last week, I think the Dolphins rebound in this spot and win on the field. Nowak’s pick: Dolphins 3024.
Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers (-51⁄2): See above.
Nowak’s pick: Chargers 30-20.
Arizona at San Francisco (-4): The 49ers are loaded with injuries on both sides of the ball. Cardinals running back David Johnson should dominate and control this game for the upset. Nowak’s pick: Cardinals 20-17.
Minnesota at Philadelphis (-3): The home team cruises with injuries impacting the Vikings on both sides of the ball, especially on defense. Nowak’s pick: Eagles 31-17.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (-7): The Seahawks are a different animal when they play at home, but Los Angeles has been Ram tough on both sides of the ball home and away. Nowak’s pick: Rams 34-24.
Dallas at Houston (-31⁄2): Both teams have underperformed this season, but the key to stopping the Cowboys is stopping running back Ezekiel Elliot. Texans’ defense is dominant enough to get that done. Nowak’s pick: Texans 27-17.
MONDAY’S GAME
Washington at New Orleans (-61⁄2): The Saints potent offense will score, but the Washington defense has actually been among the most dominant in the league. It has allowed only 44 points, albeit in only three games played. The Saints will likely win, but Washington should cover. Nowak’s pick: Saints 24-20.