Banking on post bye-week success from Saints, Lions

While my research in this Betting the NFL column revolves around making good picks on all of the week’s games, the secondary focus is searching for the two or three games that stick out as the best plays.

This week, the focus is on a pair of teams that fare quite well coming off bye weeks, using that extra week to prepare for an opponent and get healthier.

One team that looks good is New Orleans, which is 8-1 againt the spread coming off bye weeks the last nine seasons.

New Orleans travels to Baltimore and faces a Ravens defense that has only allowed 77 points this season. But the Ravens face a four-headed monster here with Saints quarterback Drew Brees, running backs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram and receiver Michael Thomas.

Yes, points will be scored on both sides with the overunder listed at 50. The Saints are getting 21⁄2 points, but I see them winning on the field.

Another team I like this week is a team that has been up-and-down all season — Detroit. The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off the bye. I believe Matthew Stafford and Co. will be geared up for a solid game against a Miami team dealing with injuries.

I have one other bonus pick today — New England over Chicago.

The Patriots travel to the Bears to face the top defense in the NFC. But if there is one thing Pats quarterback Tom Brady and coach Bill Belichick thrive on it’s a matchup challenge. The other key is the Pats are only giving the Bears 3 points.

The tough Bears defense gave up 31 points to the Dolphins last week, so how many points will the Pats score? Oddsmakers aren’t swayed by the Bears defense, offering a 491⁄2 number for the over-under that indicates many points will be scored.

Pats pull away in the fourth quarter.

TODAY’S GAMES

Tennessee vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-61⁄2) at London, England: Wacky things happen sometimes with games in England, and the Titans do have a decent defense. But Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has been inept at best while Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has 15 TDs in his back pocket so far this season. Nowak’s pick: Chargers 30-17.

New England at Chicago (+3): See above. Nowak’s pick: Patriots 34-24.

Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-3): The key is the Buccaneers offensive line that gives Jameis Winston plenty of time to throw. It’s why he threw for 395 yards and four TDs against Atlanta last week. Nowak’s pick: Buccaneers 35-17.

Detroit at Miami (+21⁄2): See above. Nowak’s pick: Lions 27-17.

Carolina at Philadelphia (-41⁄2): While the Panthers’ passing defense has issues, Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has been improving with seven touchdowns in the last three weeks. Nowak’s pick: Eagles 34-21.

Buffalo at Indianapolis (-71⁄2): The Colts will have receiver T.Y. Hilton back from a hamstring injury and they will score points. But I think the Bills defense keeps this close enough for a cover. Nowak’s pick: Colts 24-20.

Cincinnati at Kansas City (-6): This has the highest over-under designation of any game this week at 581⁄2 points. In this shootout I think you take the points with a field goal likely deciding this game.

Nowak’s pick: Chiefs 3431.

Minnesota at Jets (+3): Minnesota has too much talent for the Jets to handle on both sides of the ball.

Nowak’s pick: Vikings 30-17.

Houston at Jacksonville (-41⁄2): These teams are part of a three-way tie for first in the AFC South along with Tennessee who are all 3-3. Jacksonville should hold off Houston with first place at stake. The Jags are also playing at home with one of the league’s best defenses. Nowak’s pick: Jaguars 23-17.

New Orleans at Baltimore (-21⁄2): See above.

Nowak’s pick: Saints 2720.

Dallas at Washington (-11⁄2): Take away the 43 points allowed against the Saints in Week 5 and Washington’s defense has been pretty decent overall. Nowak’s pick: Washington 27-17.

Los Angeles Rams at 49ers (+10): The Rams are the last unbeaten team this season at 6-0 and should have no trouble going to 7-0 in this spot. Nowak’s pick: Rams 34-17.

MONDAY’S GAME

Giants at Atlanta (-6): Yes, the Giants stink this year. But this is Monday night where wacky things happen and the Falcons’ defense has allowed the most points in the league this season with 192. Upset special. Nowak’s pick: Giants 27-24.