Stefanowski, Lamont close in Q poll

Democrat Ned Lamont retains a slight lead in a race for governor that is “too close to call,” according to the latest Quinnipiac University Poll, released Tuesday, which finds that Madison Republican Bob Stefanowski is benefiting from voters who are abandoning third-party candidate Oz Griebel.

Lamont, a Greenwich businessman, has support from 47 percent of likely voters, compared with Stefanowski's 43 percent and 7 percent for independent candidate Griebel, a former Hartford business leader.

Since the poll’s Oct. 10 survey, support for Griebel, who scored 11 percent from likely voters, seems to have shifted to Stefanowski, a consultant and former corporate executive, who gained 4 percent over the two weeks. The Oct. 10 poll had Lamont with a 47-39 percent lead.

The poll found that women have strong support for Lamont, with 55-34 percent over Stefanowski and 7 percent for Griebel. Men seem on track to approve Stefanowski over Lamont, 51-38 percent, with another 7 percent for Griebel.

All three of the major candidates said the only poll that matters is the one on Nov. 6.

Marc Bradley, Lamont’s campaign manager, used the poll’s release to attack Stefanowski and link him with President Donald J. Trump, who has endorsed Stefanowski.

“Bob Stefanowski has a reckless, Trump-like scheme to cut health care, decimate education and jack up property taxes across the state,” Bradley said in a statement. “This is someone who received an ‘A’ grade from the NRA because he would roll back Sandy Hook gun laws, gives Donald Trump an ‘A’ grade for job performance, opposes the Affordable Care Act, and questions the value of common-sense mandates on vaccinations for children in public schools.

“This is an incredibly important election, and Ned is up against the most extreme GOP ticket in Connecticut history. Ned Lamont is the only candidate in this race who has a positive vision to create goodpaying jobs, reduce property taxes for the middle class and invest in our schools,” Bradley said.

Kendall Marr, Stefanowski’s spokesman, said that the Republican is the only candidate who would bring “substantial change” to state government.

“His plan to cut taxes and get our economy turned around resonates much more with voters than Ned Lamont and Oz Griebel's efforts to raise taxes and put up tolls,” Marr said in a statement. “We expect the remaining undecideds to break for Bob, rather than the two political insiders who both represent a continuation of the failed policies of Gov. (Dannel P.) Malloy.”

Griebel gets support from 5 percent of Democrats and 2 percent among Republicans. Unaffiliated voters are breaking for Stefanowski, with 43 percent, while 38 percent support Lamont; and 13 percent for Griebel.

Chris Cooper, Griebel’s spokesman, said the recent endorsement from a major Connecticut newspaper is important.

“Many voters make up their minds at the last minute, and this continues to be a dynamic race,” Cooper said in a statement. “Our campaign would much rather have the endorsement of “The Hartford Courant” than the results of a poll that was in the field last week and is already outdated.”

While only 4 percent of Connecticut voters remain undecided, 13 percent admit they could change their minds over the next week before Election Day.

“This race is looking a lot like the last two elections for governor in Connecticut — a real nail-biter,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, in a statement. “The race is close among independent voters.

“For Bob Stefanowski to pull ahead, the Republican must do better among this key swing group in blue Connecticut. Independent candidate Oz Griebel is no longer in double digits. Will he end up fading by Election Day, as often happens to third party candidates? If so, that could end up benefiting Democrat Ned Lamont, who is the second choice of Griebel voters,” Schwartz said.

Last week, the Hearst Connecticut Media Group/ Sacred Heart University Poll found that Lamont held a slight lead over Stefanowski, with 39.5 percent support among likely voters, Stefanowski with 36.1 percent and Griebel with 8.4 percent, along with 14.8 percent undecided.

In the U.S. Senate Race, first-term Democratic U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy holds a double-digit lead over Republican business owner Matthew Corey, 56-41 percent among likely voters, similar to the 57-42 percent lead he held in the Oct. 10 Quinnipiac Poll.

The Quinnpiac Poll, using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling cell phones and landlines, surveyed 1,201 likely voters from Oct. 22 to 28, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.