Playing favorites in Week 12

This is one of those weeks when mismatches have produced double-digit spreads in three games.

While I always stress taking a 10-plus point spread in this column, this week I’m bucking that trend. I believe the matchups favor the favorites so much that each underdog will fail to cover against the spread.

There was no line in the New England game earlier this week with Jets quarterback Sam Darnold out (foot injury) and quarterback Tom Brady nursing a knee injury. Brady also missed practice Friday due to an illness and is being listed as questionable. But it looks like Brady will play and the Patriots have been listed as a 10-point favorite over the Jets.

New England is coming off the bye and rested. The Pats are 4-1 in their last five and the hurting Jets are 1-4 in their last five.

The host Los Angeles Chargers also look very good despite being 13-point favorites over Arizona. While Arizona running back David Johnson is one of the best in the game, the Cardinals defense will have no answer for the hot Chargers offense. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is the key to the offense with an impressive 23 touchdowns. He should add a few more TDs to that total.

The third double-digit favorite is Baltimore giving Oakland 101⁄2 points. Baltimore is a team that has relied a lot on defense in low-scoring games. Many handicappers are siding with Oakland to cover coming off a 23-21 win over Arizona, but these are still the Raiders who have allowed 293 points and scored only 170. I like a cover even with the Ravens going to backup quarterback Lamar Jackson again for the injured Joe Flacco (hip injury).

TODAY’S GAMES

Jacksonville at Buffalo (-31⁄2): This will be the battle of defenses, and with the Jaguars on a six-game losing streak, I’m betting on the Bills “D” to win it with a late-game pick-six. Nowak’s pick: Bills 17-10.

Oakland at Baltimore (-101⁄2): See above. Nowak’s pick: Ravens 27-13.

(-5Giants at Philadelphia

This looks like one of those games handicappers famously like to call a trap game. The Eagles are reeling with two straight losses and the Giants have won two in a row. The Giants should cover, right? But I see recently acquired Golden Tate having his best game as a member of the Eagles in this spot. The Eagles playing at home also gives them an edge. Nowak’s pick: Eagles 34-17.

San Francisco at Tampa Bay (-3): The 49ers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off the bye. Nowak’s pick: Buccaneers 27-17.

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-3): The Bengals haven’t been the same without injured A.J. Green (toe injury) who is listed as doubtful for this game. The Browns pull it out in a close one. Nowak’s pick:

Browns 23-20.

New England at Jets (+10): See above. Nowak’s pick: Patriots 34-17.

Seattle at Carolina (-3.5): The Seahawks traveling cross-country doesn’t help Seattle. But the big key is the Seahawks struggling on defense defending the run and that plays into the strength of the Panthers.

Nowak’s pick: Panthers 27-20.

Miami at Indianapolis (-7.5): The Dolphins are 1-4 on the road while the Colts have been rolling with four wins in a row. Nowak’s pick: Colts 30-17.

Arizona at Los Angles Chargers (-13): See above.

Nowak’s pick: Chargers 34-13.

Pittsburgh at Denver (+31⁄2): The Steelers have won six in a row and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 15 touchdowns in that six-game win streak. Nowak’s pick: Steelers 31-20..

Green Bay at Minnesota (-31⁄2): Kirk Cousins had his best game of the season in Week 2 at Green Bay with 425 yards and four touchdown passes. He should rebound from his tough loss to Chicago last week. Nowak’s pick: Vikings 34-27.

MONDAY’S GAME

Tennessee at Houston (-6): After starting the season 0-3 the Texans have won seven in a row with solid play on both sides of the ball. Houston will likely have some added motivation having lost 20-17 to the Titans in Week 2. Nowak’s pick: Texans 30-17.