The Middletown Press (Middletown, CT)
What are the chances of a white Christmas?
Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?
Your dream came true last year. Will it happen again?
The timing of last year’s Dec. 25 snow was like a classic Christmas movie with light rain turning into snowflakes just after midnight.
Snow continued through much of the night and became heavy at times in the wee hours of Christmas Day as the coastal low strengthened.
When Christmas Day dawned, several inches of snow was on the ground, including 5 inches in Torrington, 4 in Litchfield, 3.5 in Oxford and about an inch along the shoreline.
Unlike some winter storms, roads were clear by mid-morning, causing no major problems for holiday travel.
What are our chances of having a white Christmas this year?
With 12 days to Christmas, it’s too early to forecast.
Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has forecast a warmer than average temperature for the Northeast this winter with average precipitation.
But even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall still are likely to occur.
What is on the horizon: High pressure will keep the area dry through the middle of next week, with temperatures at or below normal for this time of year.
Looking at the historical weather data gives us a better idea of our white Christmas chances.
Based on historical weather records, Norfolk in Litchfield County has a 72 percent probability of a white Christmas.
Danbury has a 35 percent probability and along the shoreline, it’s 21 percent.
Historically, the biggest snowstorms track to the benchmark off the New England coast, a geographic reference point of 40 degrees north latitude and 70 degrees west longitude.
When a storm tracks outside (or east) of the 40/ 70 benchmark, it typically brings snow to Connecticut and the New York metro area. If the low pressure system moves inside (or west) of the benchmark, there is a better potential for rain or mixed precipitation.
On Nov. 15, Connecticut saw one of the earliest snowfall in years with 11 inches of snow reported in some areas inland and about 4 inches along the shoreline.