The Middletown Press (Middletown, CT)
Can UConn play in?
Huskies most likely path to the big dance is winning the ACC
Is UConn on the NCAA tournament bubble?
No, not really. Not if you consider the bubble being the next 8-10 teams out, so to speak.
Can UConn play itself onto the NCAA tournament bubble?
Yes. Win at Tulane on Sunday, then win a few games in next week’s American Athletic Conference tournament and the Huskies could be as bubbly as Kristin Chenoweth.
Is the bubble as far as UConn can get, without winning the conference tourney?
Probably. There might be a chance the Huskies can sneak in by winning out until the AAC finals. But that seems doubtful.
UConn, in all likelihood, needs to win the AAC tournament at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas to earn the automatic NCAA bid. And anyone who’s watched the
Huskies play the past two weeks — heck, the past six weeks — knows that is a distinct possibility.
But let’s say that doesn’t happen. Is there any path to an at-large bid for UConn?
A website called The Bracket Matrix lists 81 different brackets from “bracketologists” (including ones you know like Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports.com’s Jerry Palm) around the country. Of those 81, UConn appears on exactly one bracket — something called RoundTable Ratings has the Huskies as a No. 12 seed.
According to the site, the “Last Four In” the tourna
ment would be Stanford, Cincinnati, Texas and UCLA.
Right now, UConn is No. 61 in the NET rankings. It is No. 49 in KenPom, 55 in BPI and 55 in Sagarin. The Huskies are 3-5 in Quadrant 1 games and 5-11 in Quadrant 1 and 2 games, and is 2-7 on the road.
But let’s say the Huskies win at Tulane on Sunday (and let’s face it, as well as UConn has played lately, there’s no such thing as a guaranteed road win in league play for a 2-7 road team). Then let’s say UConn wins a first round AAC tourney game against ECU or UCF or maybe a second straight bout with Tulane, then picks off, say, Wichita State in the quarterfinals and Cincinnati in the semifinals. Then loses in the AAC finals to Houston.
The Huskies would have improved to 3-7 on the road but, more importantly, could be 5-6 in Q1 games and 7-12 in Q1 and 2 games. UConn’s NET ranking would likely be in the 50s. That would compare very favorably with how those “Last Four In” teams currently stand. Consider:
Stanford: 4-6 Q1, 7-9 Q1 and 2, 27 NET, 4-5 road.
Cincinnati: 2-6 Q1, 10-6 Q 1 and 2, 49 NET, 5-6 road.
Texas: 5-7 Q1, 7-11 Q 1 and 2, 56 NET, 6-5 road.
UCLA: 6-6 Q1, 9-9 Q1 and 2, 76 NET, 5-4 road.
Obviously, all four of those teams can improve (or hurt) their own resumes over the next week. Plus, even if UConn picks up a pair of Q1 wins in Fort Worth, it could still lose one or two on its resume. How? Two of UConn’s Q1 wins were over Florida (NET 28) and Tulsa (NET 75). Florida drops three spots and that becomes a Q2 win; Tulsa drops one spot and that’s also a Q2 win for the Huskies.
Get all that?
Let’s add some other bubble teams.
Texas Tech? Right now, 3-9, 7-12, NET 22. Similar, other than NET ranking. Wichita State? 2-6, 9-8, NET 48. Rutgers? 4-9, 8-10, 31 NET. Mississippi State? 2-6, 7-9, No. 51 NET.
Again, all those teams can improve or hurt their respective resumes over the next week. And UConn can personally scar the resumes of both Cincinnati and Wichita State next week in Fort Worth. The Huskies could compare favorably with almost all of those teams.
However, there are two areas that hurt the Huskies the most.
For one, the best UConn can finish on the road is 3-7. That would be worse than all the aforementioned teams except Rutgers, which is currently 1-8, and Texas Tech (3-7).
Then there’s that fateful, 97-86 loss at Gampel to St. Joseph’s on Nov. 13. A Quadrant 4 loss to a St. Joseph’s team that is currently 6-24 overall and 2-15 in the Atlantic 10. A loss Dan Hurley recently said would haunt him for the rest of his life. Of the previously mentioned teams, only UCLA has such a Q4 loss on its resume (a 77-74 setback at Pauley Pavilion to NET 260 Cal State Fullerton).
True, UConn was without freshman star James Bouknight, who was in the midst of a three-game suspension for a litany of bad decisions one September night. True, it was a hectic night: at one point, there was consideration of canceling the game due to condensation on the floor.
But the game was played, and UConn lost. And there’s really no excuse losing to St. Joseph’s this season. At home.
There’s nothing UConn can do about that right now, except win the AAC tournament championship game on March 15 at Dickies Arena. Even though the Huskies could be bubble-worthy entering that game, there’s a good chance it’s there only way to this year’s NCAA tournament.