Will state’s college students return to campus?

With Connecticut’s public universities scrambling to reopen in seven weeks, officials are beset with uncertainty.

How widespread will the coronavirus be in September?

Will Congress authorize more pandemic relief for states by then? If so, will Gov. Ned Lamont and the state legislature share any of it?

Despite all these unknowns, higher education officials say there’s an even bigger question threatening their economic future.

Will students tolerate the socially-distanced, onlinedominated, yet-still-expensive college experience amid COVID-19?

“There’s a lot of potential for a bad [budgetary] outcome here if enrollment falls short,” said Ben Barnes, chief financial officer for the Board of Regents for Higher Education. “We need students showing up.”

And if they won’t, what does it mean for systems whose finances already were battered by the coronavirus a few months ago? If student frustration this fall leads to an exodus from campuses in January, higher education budgets could be in a world of pain.

“What we are planning for is normal — for now,” University of Connecticut Dean of Students Eleanor JB Daugherty said this week, shortly before the

Board of Trustees approved a budget that offers 50 percent or fewer classes in person this fall, eliminates 4,000 housing beds and trims most departments by at least 3 percent. “We’re asking all of us to live in the ‘normal — for now.’ ”

The budget plan: prepare to hemorrhage cash

The tens of millions of dollars refunded to students this past spring because of the pandemic was just the tip of the disaster, UConn and state university officials say.

The Board of Regents — which oversees the state university and community college systems — already expects enrollment to be down 10 percent at three of its four regional universities, and hopes community college turnout remains constant.

UConn hopes to avoid enrollment losses among in-state and most out-ofstate students. But projections also show one scenario where both are down 5 percent or more. And international enrollment is expected to drop massively, down a half to nearly 75 percent.

The “best-case” projection calls for housing to be down 25 percent and dining service use off by 50 percent, for a loss of $16 million. If there’s a full-blown COVID-19 outbreak and the campus shuts down again, the fiscal hit could approach $60 million.

All those projections, cobbled together by the regents and trustees, are laced with potential deficits, and plans to try and cover them.

The $1.54 billion budget

UConn trustees adopted for the main campus in Storrs and the satellite branches is expected to require anywhere from $47 million to almost $130 million from university reserves to stay afloat.

Revenues are projected to be down $33 million in the state university system, which would wipe out nearly a third of its emergency reserves to cover the pandemic-related losses last spring and balance the books this upcoming academic year.

“These are not budgets in the traditional sense,” said Scott Jordan, UConn’s chief financial officer. “They’re not balanced.” Within a year or two, universities will be looking at massive fiscal instability that will require a huge infusion from the state.

And that’s despite maintaining previously approved tuition and fee hikes. Charges at the four regional, state universities rise 3.3 percent for resident students this fall, ranging from $24,218 to $26,738. Tuition, room and board for in-state UConn students at Storrs climbed 2 percent to $31,092.

And both Jordan and Barnes acknowledged the fiscal hits could come from Hartford as well.

Lamont is projecting a whopping $2.5 billion hole in state finances in the fiscal year that begins July 1. And the governor has tremendous discretion to unilaterally reduce most areas of state spending, including higher education block grants, by up to 5 percent once the budget year is underway. UConn trustees already have built a nearly $10 million hit from the governor into their plan.

Higher education budgets

also have to cover significant raises for most unionized employees.

In return for granting wage and benefit concessions in 2017, bargaining units at UConn and in the Board of Regents’ system were pledged a 5.5 percent raise this fall. Unions have said they don’t want to discuss further givebacks until after Lamont and legislators consider raising taxes on Connecticut’s wealthiest household.

UConn will cut most non-union managers’ compensation by 5 percent through furloughs while the regents budgeted flat pay for this group.

But both systems also are counting on attrition — faculty retirements that largely won’t be refilled — to keep salary accounts balanced. This, in turn, could change how students see Connecticut’s universities.

On-campus life will change dramatically

Despite the planned cuts and the continuing pandemic, UConn officials insist many students are eager to return to campus this fall.

Though the online education program assembled last spring ran smoothly, UConn President Thomas Katsouleas said last week, “it clearly was not what UConn students or their parents are interested in. We’ve heard that message loud and clear.”

But COVID-19 will make the in-person look vastly different. For starters, about one third of the Storrs campus’ 12,000 dormitory beds will be eliminated to allow for more social distancing.

Most classes will utilize just 30 percent of available space, which translates into

fewer students — and more courses offered online. UConn officials say fewer than 50 percent of classes may be open for in-person attendance. Officials in the regents system are looking at a similar emphasis on online courses.

Classes also will have larger breaks in between to allow for sanitizing, another limit on the number of students that can be served in-person.

Extracurriculars are changing too: men’s crosscountry, swimming and diving, and tennis, as well as women’s rowing, will be eliminated after the upcoming school year after UConn trustees reduced the athletics’ subsidy by 10 percent.

Resident students won’t be restricted to their dorms, but those who would attend major events and gatherings in past years might have to settle for a walk around campus, Daugherty said.

‘We’re still in for a shock’

Nandan Tumu, who graduated from UConn last month and just completed his tenure as a student representative on the Board of Trustees, said he thinks most students don’t blame university officials for the pandemic-related limitations.

But, he added, that also doesn’t mean all will accept them. And its impossible to forecast how many will stick around after the fall semester.

“I think nobody knows the answer,” he said. “I don’t think the students fully grasp how different the on-campus experience will be this fall. Each one will have to decide, can they overcome those barriers to make that experience worth it?”