The Middletown Press (Middletown, CT)
Trump, COVID help state Senate Democrats
In a normal year, Republicans might be salivating at their chance to pick up seats in the state Senate. Among the 22 Democrats in the upper chamber, 11 are just finishing their first terms — the moment when an incumbent is easiest to pick off.
Certainly the GOP does have distant hopes of gaining a seat in the Senate, which would still leave them far outnumbered, 21-15. The tax increases of 2019 and the state’s perennially sluggish economy give Republicans a compelling narrative in many of the 36 Senate districts.
They have also used police reforms, adopted in the summertime special session and signed by Gov. Ned Lamont, as leverage for votes in the heated American culture war — although that law doesn’t do anything close to what police unions claim it does.
But no one will ever confuse 2020 with a normal year. Coronavirus hurts all challengers of any party, especially Republicans, who are outnumbered with less of a networked army behind them. And especially in Connecticut, where Lamont, a Democrat, has managed the crisis to popular acclaim.
Then there is President Donald Trump. He’s the subject of this election as far as many Democrats are concerned, despite protests from Republicans who want to talk about state and local issues.
Republicans can’t — or don’t — repudiate the polarizing White House occupant, for fear of losing the base. And many can’t offer anything close to a full-throated endorsement of Trump, when we journalists press the question, as we do. Instead they hem and haw about how they like this about him and don’t like that.
The result: Most of the Republicans challenging the 11 first-term Democrats lack experience in public office and bring little name recognition. In one district, held by Sen. Saud Anwar, Republicans didn’t even mount a candidate. That’s inexcusable for a first-term seat, especially since Anwar has not shied away from controversial positions such as favoring higher income taxes on the rich.
“People don’t want to step up because of the harassment and labeling that occurs,” Republican state Chairman J.R. Romano conceded. He insists it’s because of the times we’re in broadly, with social media attacks and a leftleaning media, rather than Trump. Candidates tell me Trump doesn’t come up when they talk with voters.
Maybe not, but he is ever-present in the background.
“Love him or hate him, Donald Trump has proven to be a political force of nature,” said GOP strategist Marc Dillon, who managed Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton’s 2018 campaign for governor. That means good and bad depending on the district but overall in Connecticut it’s a negative.
Gunning for a supermajority
And so, Democrats have the upper hand as the Senate races take shape. They are gunning for two additional seats for a 24-12, veto-proof super-majority. Thirty-seven percent of Connecticut voters are registered Democrats, compared with 21 percent of Republicans. And many of those Republicans can’t stand Trump.
It’s conceivable but unlikely Republicans can hold all their seats and win another. Their best chances are against Sen. Alex Kasser, D-Greenwich, and Sen. Cathy Osten, D-Sprague, though either would be considered an upset win for the Republicans.
Then again, in an anti-Trump rout, which could also happen, the Dems could leave the GOP with as few as 10 seats, a low not seen in decades. Popular Republicans such as Sen. Tony Hwang of Fairfield, Sen. Paul Formica of East Lyme and Sen. Kevin Witkos of Canton all face challengers — all three of them rematches — banking in part on Trump’s unpopularity among moderate Republicans in their districts.
Let’s set the big-picture scene. Among the 22 Democrats, I count 13 in safe seats, mostly in the bigger cities. Among the 14 Republicans, my count of safe seats is 6. There would be a seventh, held by Sen. Eric Berthel, R-Watertown, but Berthel’s boneheaded move of having a Q-Anon sticker on his car, then his partial defense of that right-wing conspiracy group before he finally apologized, puts him somewhat in danger.
Only one senator, Minority Leader Len Fasano, R-North Haven, is not seeking reelection. Democrat April Capone, a former East Haven mayor, and Republican Paul Cicarella Jr., both formidable candidates, are vying for the seat in a district that leans Democratic.
Personalities and local circumstances matter
As a columnist, I’m not giving any opinions on specific races this close to the election. But a 24-seat supermajority would not help the state. No sitting governor wants to see a veto-proof majority in his or her own party. It leads to an unwieldy caucus with too many mouths to feed, and the General Assembly is already way more progressive than the state as a whole, thank you very much.
It’s important to remember that personalities and specific circumstances matter as much as the big picture, even in Senate districts with an average population of 99,000. That will trump the Trump factor in many races.
For example, the race in New Britain and Farmington should flip from Republican to Democrat, based on the overwhelming Democratic registration advantage in New Britain. But that might not happen. Sen. Genarro Bizzarro beat Rep. Rick Lopes, D-New Britain, in a low-turnout special election in 2019, and now faces a rematch. Bizzarro is popular in the Hardware City and people in both parties quietly say he has outworked Lopes.
Romano and Fasano both say lack of prior elected office, as we’re seeing in the GOP, isn’t necessarily a handicap.
“Under that scenario a lot of Democrats should never be holding office. If you look at their records before they ran, they were teachers, union reps, etc.,” said Fasano, who’s retiring after 18 years in the Senate. “That should weigh zero. … I never held elected office before I ran.”
Dems bank on Trump, name recognition
Romano points out that the party in opposition to the U.S. president generally does well during that president’s term. In 2004, for example, former President George W. Bush’s secondterm election, Dems gained three seats. And the GOP picked up a seat as former President Barack Obama swept to a 2012 win for his second term.
Still, Trump and the lack of name recognition among some challengers is a factor.
Formica’s opponent, for example, former New London City Council member Martha Marx, has in huge letters on her web page, “OUR CHARACTER IS ON THE BALLOT.” She’s talking about Trump, not Formica. Aside from his best-in-Senate hair, Formica’s character is unquestioned, including by Marx.
In the 36th Senate District in Greenwich and Stamford, Kasser faces a spirited challenge from a young, conservative Ryan Fazio, who was elected to the 230-member Greenwich Representative Town Meeting. This is a seat that was held by Republicans from time immemorial, most recently former Sen. Scott Frantz, defeated by Kasser, who spent hugely instead of opting for public financing, as most candidates do.
Surely a healthy Republican Party could have coaxed someone more experienced and better known than Fazio, who’s in alternative energy.
Too complex to call
Other factors help the Dems as well. Many districts are carved up in a way that buries Republican support in moderate towns near Democrat-controlled cities. And while many in the Democratic Party support tolls, they took no toll votes that Republicans can attack.
The state’s $3 billion rainyday fund has helped incumbent Democrats in this year’s economic swoon — ironically, in large part because of a compromise budget hammered out in 2017, when Republicans and Democrats shared power in the Senate, 18-18.
Perhaps the closest race is yet another rematch, pitting Republican Sen. George Logan against Democrat Jorge Cabrera in a varied district covering Ansonia, Beacon Falls, Bethany, Derby, Hamden, Naugatuck and Woodbridge. Cabrera, a union leader, has tied Logan, an executive at Aquarion Water Co., to the unpopular Eversource — which owns Aquarion.
That seems a bit of a stretch, but that’s politics.
Democrats, to a person, say the relatively light challenges against the 11 firstterm members of their caucus — only two of whom, Sen. Derek Slap of West Hartford and Sen. Dennis Bradley of Bridgeport, are in Democrat-safe districts — reflects the senators in those seats in addition to Trump.
“It speaks to the strength of the freshman class of state senators that we have,” said Sen. Mae Flexer, D-Killingly, who is all but certain to win reelection. “It’s hard to find a challenger if you’ve got a state senator who maybe you don’t necessarily agree with ideologically, but works really hard and is doing a really good job for the district.”
Republicans continue to point to their issues, chiefly taxes, jobs and the massive state pension and health liabilities, with a reminder from Romano.
“I think we’ll see some surprises on election night.”