New Senate power

Blumenthal, Murphy step into majority amid rare 50-50 split

WASHINGTON — Soon after the presidential inauguration on Wednesday, U.S. Sens. Richard Blumenthal and Chris Murphy will step into a Senate majority for the first time since 2015. And it will mark the first time Democrats have held the White House and both chambers of Congress in a decade.

The shift will happen after Georgia certifies the election wins of

Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, and they are sworn in, giving Democrats and Republicans a rare 50-50 split. The Democrats’ edge will come from the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris.

At that time — likely later this month — Democrats will step into the moderated power and massive expectations of governing, handicapped by the realities of working in the narrowest possible majority.

The senators from Connecticut will be more likely to see bills they support or introduce go to the Senate floor for a vote, instead of dying at the hands of Republicans who have until now controlled the agenda. And they’ll have increased influence in an environment where every Democratic vote counts.

But Democrats’ power will be curtailed by their numbers and by Senate rules. Some level of bipartisan cooperation is almost always needed in the Senate, all the more in a divided chamber. That will require unusual power-sharing with Republicans. For example, the committees will have an equal number from each party.

“It’s going to be hard to get big things done 50-50 but we should still have expectations that they get done because the people have given us a clear signal that they want us to pass things,” Murphy said.

‘The Nature of the Senate’

When he takes over from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the next majority leader, Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., will shoulder the responsibility of ushering the Democratic

agenda through the Senate, while balancing an ideologically diverse Democratic caucus and a still influential Republican party.

Nevertheless, Schumer on Wednesday said he and his caucus are committed to finding the “best ways for big bold change.”

Democrats, jubilant to take a Senate majority for the first time in six years, will be able to confirm Biden’s cabinet appointees and judges with only Democratic votes. But under Senate rules, Democrats will require Republican votes for every bill they want to pass.

“The nature of the Senate is some support across the aisle is important, if not essential, to a lot of measures whether the Senate is closely divided or not — that’s the nature of the committee process as well as the filibuster rule,” Blumenthal said. “But I think we’ll have willing partners across the aisle in a moment of extreme crisis such as we face now.”

Both Murphy and Blumenthal have their eyes on gun violence prevention measures.

“You’re still going to need to be able to build some bipartisan consensus on issues like background checks, so that’s what I’ll be doing,” Murphy said. “But if McConnell is in charge of the Senate, you wouldn’t even be able to have a vote on background checks. At least now you’ll be able to have a floor debate over it.”

Lessons from 2001

As majority leader, Schumer will have two new powers that are crucial in the eyes of Richard Arenberg, a Senate rules expert and professor at Brown University who was chief of staff to former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell.

Schumer will be able to decide what legislation comes to the floor; and during Senate debates, he’ll have the right to make the first comments or motions.

Schumer's first task as majority leader will be developing with McConnell what will be, in part, a power-sharing agreement with Republicans: a Senate organizing resolution that will lay out matters like committee membership, staff budgets, who gets which offices and other rules. The resolution needs 60 votes to pass, so Republicans are likely to negotiate more privileges than a usual minority would have.

Schumer and McConnell have a template they can follow, from 2001. In that year, after the Supreme Court handled the disputed election between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore, a 50-50 senate was sworn in that January. For the first 17 days of the new Congress, Democrats had a majority in the chamber based on the tie-breaking vote of Gore, who was the outgoing vice president. Sen. Tom Daschle, D-S.D., was majority leader then.

But when Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney were sworn in, Republicans took the majority and Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss., led the chamber. Then after several months, Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont, “Jumpin’ Jim,” as Lott described him, left the Republican party and joined the Democratic caucus — giving Democrats a 51-49 majority.

Lott and Daschle said it took them three weeks to develop an organizing resolution, the playbook for how the Senate would function when divided 50-50. Daschle said the document “drives virtually everything.”

Lott and Daschle decided

to award the majority party committee chairmanships, but divide the committee membership equally between the two parties — forcing bipartisan compromise even at the committee level.

‘Like oil and water’

Schumer and McConnell are likely to strike a similar deal.

“All the committees are 50-50,” Murphy said Monday, describing how he expects the new Senate will work. “It’s going to be hard to even discharge bills from committees.”

Neither Murphy nor Blumenthal is expected to chair a committee in the Senate. Both are expected to lead subcommittees.

Lott described the red phone he had on his desk at the time, a direct line to Daschle, that only those two ever used. “Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell are going to have to talk,” he said.

Daschle described himself and Lott as “close friends.” McConnell and Schumer are cooperative but not very friendly, said James Wallner, a professor at American University and former executive director of the Senate Steering Committee, a key staff job.

“They’re kind of like oil and water, they don’t mix very well,” Lott said. “Chuck is a city guy and McConnell was born in Alabama and represents conservative Kentucky. Their styles are very different.”

Parties pulling apart

The increasing polarization of politics has driven Schumer, McConnell and their parties apart since 2001, Daschle said.

“Things have changed dramatically in two decades. Social media has been a big reason why,” Daschle said. “Ideological cable news has also been

catalytic in changing the environment. The money chase is so much worse now than it's ever been.”

Party control is now more important than ever, Wallner said.

“What's really hard for Schumer and the challenge he’s going to have to confront is between 2000 and now the Senate has become more centralized, the majority party leader has become more important and the expectations as to what you do when you're in the majority have grown,” Wallner said. “It's harder to blame the minority when you're the majority.”

And yet, McConnell, who Lott described as a “world champion blocker,” will still be able to obstruct Democrats. And both McConnell and Schumer will — as they do now — have to deal with their own diverse and at times fractious caucuses, keeping progressives, moderates and conservatives united to get anything done.

One 'no' vote from any Democratic senator could sink a bill, giving each one power — notably, conservative Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia.

‘Deference and influence’

Asked about his power in the 50-50 Senate, Blumenthal chuckled.

“I’m reading President [Barack] Obama’s book about a time when Democrats had 60 votes in the Senate which seems almost unimaginable, right?” Blumenthal said. “He talks about how frustrating it was because... every senator could insist on their own pet projects and amendments because every one one of the Democrats was essential to reaching the 60 vote threshold.”

He added, “Senators are accorded deference and influence...and I think that will be true in spades.”

Daschle observed that last week's violence at the Capitol could help foster more bipartisan cooperation at least for a time. That happened in the wake of other national emergencies.

“I do think that events like 9/11 and what happened tragically at the Capitol this week can be transformational,” Daschle said. “I think you saw a little bit of that as a result of the desecration of the Capitol. Several people on the Republican side changed their position on challenging the certification of the Electoral College . ... It certainly has had an effect. Whether it has a lasting effect is still to be determined."

Then again, Democrats now plan to impeach President Donald Trump over the Capitol siege, something unlikely to win broad Republican support, although a few have backed convicting him. “That's the kind of thing Chuck Schumer needs to cool down the rhetoric,” Lott said. “That doesn't help either.”

Some areas that are likely sources of bipartisan agreement are further COVID-19 relief, an infrastructure package and possibly some climate reforms, Arenberg, the Brown professor, said.

Blumenthal said his top priorities will be more COVID-19 relief and support for rebuilding the economy — likely through an infrastructure package aimed at road and bridge repair to create jobs.

Murphy said as soon as security crisis at the U.S. Capitol passes, he’ll “immediately” get to work on advancing legislation to close loopholes surrounding background checks for gun sales.

Blumenthal

Murphy