The Middletown Press (Middletown, CT)
Bubbling over
Number of Big East teams squarely on NCAA bubble
Don’t look now, but the Big East is starting to look bubblier than Kristen Chenoweth.
If the season ended today, Villanova and Creighton would be NCAA tournament teams. No questions asked. Both teams are ranked in the Top 25 both in the AP poll and, more importantly, the NET rankings. They’re in.
But after a “Saturday bloody Saturday” in which three of the league’s other tourney contenders were beaten, what other Big East team can we definitively say is in the Big Dance right now?
Seton Hall? The Pirates are 13-9 overall and in third place in the Big East at 10-6. But after Saturday’s loss at Georgetown (5-7 in league), they are No. 49 in the NET, 38th in KenPom and 38th in BPI. They’re 3-6 in Quad 1 games with no such opportunities remaining.
In other words, Samu & Co. are squarely back on the bubble.
Xavier? The Musketeers had lost two straight (including a Feb. 13 home loss to UConn) and were 14-4 overall entering Sunday night’s home bout with lowly Butler. They were right behind Seton Hall at No. 50 in the NET. With the possible exception of last-place DePaul, they’ve been hurt by lengthy COVID pauses worse than any other team in the Big East, having played a leaguelow nine conference games. That may help explain Xavier’s low KenPom (59) and BPI (45) numbers. It’s 1-1 in Quad 1 games, with a Saturday home game with Creighton still remaining.
The Musketeers are bubbilicious.
St. John’s? After Saturday’s home loss to DePaul, the Red Storm will need a Big East tournament title to reach the Big Dance.
Then there’s UConn. We learned two things about the Huskies from Saturday’s 68-0 loss at 10th-ranked Villanova. For one, UConn is as bubbly as any team in the nation. Saturday’s loss only dropped the Huskies two spots in the NET, from No. 52 to 54.
UConn’s other metrics (34 KenPom, 30 BPI, 42 Sagarin) are generally better than Seton Hall and Xavier.
The Huskies are just 2-3 against Quad 1 opponents and 3-5 against Quads 1 and 2. They get one more Quad 1 chance on March 3 at Seton Hall in what will be a huge game for both teams.
UConn’s strength of schedule is just 69th in the nation, and its out-of-conference strength of schedule is 149th (UConn only got to play three non-conference games, though one was a neutral-site win over 17th-ranked USC).
UConn may have to win its final four games of the season — at Georgetown on Tuesday, vs. Marquette on Saturday, at Seton Hall March 3 and vs. Georgetown March 6 — to feel comfortable with its position heading into the Big East tournament. A loss in any of those games might make it necessary to win a couple of games at Madison Square Garden.
“We’ve got a chance to put something together down the stretch here,” said coach Dan Hurley. “We don’t have a lot of time, and we don’t have much of a safety net.”
The other thing we learned on Saturday is that, while UConn may still be “coming,” Villanova is still the king of the Big East. The Wildcats snuffed away the Huskies’ upset bid with the ease of Collin Gillespie brushing away a defender on the low post. It was hardly a rout, but for most of the second half, the outcome of the game was in little doubt.
“This is one of the best teams in the country that we faced (Saturday),” Hurley said. “The class of our league. Credit them. They made far less mistakes, their mindset is championship-level.”
Indeed, since UConn’s last trip to the NCAA tournament, Villanova has won two national championships under coach Jay Wright. Gillespie was a
freshman on the 2018 title team.
A little over a year earlier, Hurley had declared that teams better get UConn now because “it’s coming.” He toned down the brashness a bit on Saturday, but couldn’t quite hide his confidence.
“We’ll be better by the time the Big East tournament rolls around,” Hurley promised. “Hopefully, we get the chance to play (Villanova) again.”
If the Huskies do, they will have a better idea of how to handle ’Nova’s unique offensive sets. They will also have an opportunity to knock off the reigning kings of the Big East and add a huge victory to an NCAA tournament resume that is looking very bubbly right now.
THIS WEEK’S AP TOP 25 BALLOT
1. Gonzaga: Two wins away from an undefeated regular season.
2. Baylor: Three wins away from an undefeated regular season.
3. Michigan: Big win at Ohio State on Sunday. Somewhere, Bo Schembechler
is smiling.
4. Illinois: We’ve been saying all season, Final Four talent.
5. Alabama: Great to see ex-Yalie Jordan Bruner back in starting lineup after missing over a month with injury.
6. Ohio State: And somewhere, Woody Hayes is crying.
7. Villanova: Collin Gillespie is UConn fans’ new Public Enemy No. 1.
8. Oklahoma: Brady Manek looks a lot like Larry Bird. Plays a little like him, too.
9. Florida State: If you say a team is overlooked enough are they really still overlooked?
10. Iowa: We all know Luka, but Joe Wiskamp is a baller, as well.
11. Houston: No shame losing at Wichita State after experiencing horrible weather conditions at home.
12. West Virginia: Rallied from 19 points down to win at Texas on Saturday.
13. Texas: Final two regular season games vs. Kansas, Texas Tech.
14. Creighton: DNP this past week.
15. USC: Remember when UConn toppled Evan Mobley and the Trojans?
16. Arkansas: Big showdown vs. Alabama on Wednesday.
17. Virginia Tech: DNP this past week.
18. Texas Tech: How did Taunton, Mass.’s Marcus Santos-Silva end up in Lubbock?
19. Virginia: Loss at Florida State last week nearly as embarrassing as UMBC loss in 2018.
20. San Diego State: Eight of Aztecs’ 17 wins have come by 22 points or more.
21. Loyola (Ill.): Ramblers have won 12 of their last 13.
22. Kansas: At least one blue blood is worthy of being ranked.
23. Tennessee: Embarrassing home loss to lowly Kentucky on Saturday.
24. Western Kentucky: DNP this past week.
25. Boise State: Huge Mountain West showdowns with San Diego State on Thursday, Saturday.